黄金市场短期多空博弈加剧 中长期仍将维持“牛市”

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by global geopolitical uncertainties, with a notable impact from U.S. tariff policies and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine [1][3]. Market Trends - Gold prices have shown a high level of volatility, with a peak of $3427 per ounce on June 5, followed by a decline to $3330.78 per ounce after the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May indicated an increase of 139,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations, which has led to a reduction in the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. Investment Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold has appreciated by 25%, making it a preferred investment choice for many traders [3]. - Despite the positive long-term outlook for gold prices, short-term investment in June may not be advisable due to historically low average returns during this month [3]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks are expected to continue their gold purchases, with a projected net purchase of 1045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of purchases exceeding 1000 tons [4]. - Emerging market central banks are anticipated to be the primary drivers of gold demand, with their gold reserves expected to increase from 12% to 18% by 2027, translating to an additional demand of 700 tons per year [4]. Price Dynamics - Historical data indicates that the pace of gold price increases has accelerated, with significant jumps observed in shorter time frames [5].