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特朗普“大漂亮”法案的争议:刺激美国经济,力度能有多大?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-09 00:55

Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding the economic growth expectations from the proposed tax reform bill is intense, with contrasting views between the White House and independent economic forecasts regarding the potential impact on the economy and the federal deficit [1]. Group 1: Republican Optimism - Republican leaders assert that the tax reform will usher in a "golden age" of economic growth, with Trump claiming annual growth rates could triple or quintuple the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) January forecast of 1.8% [2]. - The Senate Finance Committee Chairman, Mike Crapo, predicts a surge in capital formation, job creation, and wage increases as a result of the bill [2]. - The White House Council of Economic Advisers projects short-term GDP growth of 4.2% to 5.2% and long-term growth of 2.9% to 3.5%, significantly higher than estimates from the Tax Foundation [2]. Group 2: Cautious Economic Predictions - Economists express skepticism, noting that historical data shows the U.S. GDP growth has only exceeded 3% twice since 2005, and the 2017 tax cuts did not generate the promised self-funding revenue [3]. - The CBO estimates that the proposed tax bill could lead to an additional $2.4 trillion in federal deficit, raising concerns about its long-term economic impact [4]. Group 3: Independent Economic Assessments - The Tax Foundation estimates that the bill will only increase long-term GDP growth by 0.8%, with generated revenue covering about one-third of its costs [5]. - The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania predicts a mere 0.4% increase in GDP over the first decade, effectively raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [5]. - The Joint Committee on Taxation anticipates that the revenue generated from the tax provisions will be less than 3% of the costs incurred by the bill [5]. - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that while the bill may raise growth rates to about 2% by 2027, the subsequent burden of federal debt will likely reverse this effect [5].