评论 || 汽车生产模式变革：从“以产定销”到“以销定产”的破局之路

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation from a "production-driven" model to a "demand-driven" model, necessitated by supply-demand imbalances and the rapid shift towards new energy vehicles, leading to a vicious cycle of increasing losses for dealers [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The current automotive market is characterized by an oversupply of fuel vehicles and a rapid increase in new energy vehicle penetration, resulting in a mismatch between production and demand, escalating inventory levels, and intensifying price wars [2][3] - 82% of dealers are experiencing price inversions, with new car sales contributing a gross profit margin of -17.7%, indicating severe financial strain [1] - The traditional "production-driven" model, effective during market expansion, is now revealing structural flaws in the context of a saturated market [2] Group 2: Transition to Demand-Driven Production - The shift to a "demand-driven" production model is essential for addressing the current industry crisis and achieving high-quality development [1][3] - Companies must adapt to smaller orders and faster responses, which requires significant adjustments in production lines and accurate market demand forecasting [3] - The transition is complicated by supply chain vulnerabilities, as evidenced by past crises such as the chip shortage and rising lithium costs, leading companies to adopt inventory hoarding strategies [3] Group 3: Policy and Technological Support - Policy tools are crucial for reshaping the industry ecosystem, including financing support for dealers and measures to prevent excessive inventory accumulation by manufacturers [4] - Digital technologies have proven effective in restructuring automotive production, with companies like NIO and XPeng utilizing user behavior data to enhance inventory turnover efficiency by 30% [5] - Modular platforms and supply chain collaboration are key to implementing the "demand-driven" model, significantly reducing model switching cycles and improving production efficiency [5][6] Group 4: Long-term Strategic Outlook - The automotive industry must learn from the home appliance sector's experience in implementing "demand-driven" production to avoid inventory buildup [6] - Short-term strategies include production cuts to stabilize prices, while mid-term goals focus on building flexible supply chains and intelligent manufacturing capabilities [6] - Ultimately, establishing a normalized "order-driven" production mechanism is essential for transitioning the industry from a production-oriented to a user-oriented approach, breaking the cycle of price wars and fostering a healthier ecosystem [6]