大摩揭露OPEC+增产怪象：实际产量停滞不前！

Group 1 - OPEC+ is considering a significant increase in oil production quotas to restart idle capacity, but this has not yet translated into a substantial rise in actual production [1] - Despite an increase of approximately 1 million barrels per day in production quotas from March to June, the actual production increase remains negligible, particularly from Saudi Arabia [1] - The recent easing of supply restrictions by eight major OPEC+ members has shaken the global oil market, potentially increasing oil supply amid threats to oil demand from trade tensions [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley anticipates that OPEC+ will continue to increase quotas, predicting an additional supply increase of about 420,000 barrels per day from June to September, with half of this increase expected from Saudi Arabia [1] - The firm maintains a forecast of oversupply in the oil market, as non-OPEC+ countries are expected to increase crude oil supply by approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, surpassing the global demand growth of about 800,000 barrels per day [1] - Current Brent crude oil prices hover around $66 per barrel, reflecting an 11% decline since 2025, with Morgan Stanley predicting a price of $57.50 per barrel for the second half of the year [2]