光控资本|这一轮牛市能持续多久

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in A-shares is expected to continue until mid-2026, driven by policy support, liquidity easing, and technological advancements [3][12]. Market Forecast - The peak of the bull market is predicted to occur between mid-2025 and early 2026, with major institutions agreeing on a continuation until late 2025 or early 2026 [3][10]. - Technical analysis suggests that the main upward wave starting in September 2024 could target a breakout above 7000 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [4][10]. Historical Context - Historical bull markets in A-shares have lasted between 1.5 to 3 years, with the current cycle likely to follow the patterns observed in previous bull markets from 2019 and 2005-2007 [5][6]. Market Phases - The current phase is characterized as the initial stage of the bull market, with a period of consolidation expected from October 2024 to mid-2025 [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see earnings growth driven by policy measures, pushing the index towards 3700-3800 points [8]. Key Drivers and Potential Risks - Key drivers include strong policy support, liquidity easing, and industrial upgrades in sectors like AI and renewable energy [9]. - Potential risks involve external shocks, such as U.S. tariff policies, and slower-than-expected recovery in the real estate sector [9]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Short-term investments (first half of 2025) should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support, including technology (AI computing, semiconductors), brokerage firms, and undervalued consumer goods [10][11]. - Long-term allocations (post-second half of 2025) should emphasize growth in technology (AI applications, renewable energy) and recovery in consumer sectors (pharmaceuticals, food and beverages) [11]. Conclusion - The bull market is likely to persist until late 2025 or early 2026, with critical validation points in early 2025 for earnings reports and mid-2025 for interim results [12][13].