清盘率骤降至63.8%，但市场人士看涨7月！澳洲楼市短暂放缓

Core Insights - The Australian residential auction market has experienced a decline due to a collective pause from buyers and sellers during the long weekend, resulting in the national clearance rate dropping to its lowest level of the year [1][3] Group 1: Auction Market Performance - The number of auctions scheduled last week decreased significantly, dropping by more than half compared to the previous week, as most states paused activities for the King's Birthday long weekend [3] - The national preliminary clearance rate fell to 63.8%, marking the lowest level of the year (excluding January's volatile data) [3] - Prior to this, the national preliminary clearance rates had remained above 70% for the previous two weeks [4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Louis Christopher, founder of SQM Research, noted that buyer and seller activity is typically lower during holidays, but he anticipates a market rebound this week, regaining the positive momentum driven by interest rate cuts [4][5] - There is increasing speculation about another interest rate cut in July, with a 91% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.6% [5] - The recent weak GDP data has heightened expectations for a rate cut at the RBA's meeting on July 7-8, which would be the third cut of the year [5] Group 3: Regional Market Highlights - Despite the overall market slowdown, Sydney saw notable transactions, such as a four-bedroom house in Eastwood selling for AUD 4.01 million, significantly above the expected range of AUD 2.5 million to AUD 3 million [6] - Melbourne's market remains stable with a preliminary clearance rate of 71.5%, maintaining above 70% for the sixth consecutive week, although it is the lowest level since the last week of April [6] - In smaller markets, Adelaide led with a preliminary clearance rate of 60.3%, followed by Brisbane at 58.3%, and Canberra at 54.5% [6]