LIANHE TECHNOLOGY(SZ:002250) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-06-09 09:18Core Viewpoint - The surge in K-amine prices due to a chemical accident has led to a dramatic increase in the stock price of Lianhua Technology, raising questions about whether this is a genuine "value reassessment" or merely speculative trading [1][2]. Price Movement - Lianhua Technology's stock price doubled within 10 trading days starting from May 23, with 6 limit-up days in 8 days [1]. - On June 9, the stock closed at 14.08 yuan, marking a cumulative increase of 112.69% over the past 10 trading days [3]. Impact of Chemical Accident - A chemical explosion at Youdao Chemical on May 27 caused a significant reduction in K-amine supply, leading to a price increase from 150,000 yuan/ton to 230,000-250,000 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Lianhua Technology, as the largest global supplier of K-amine, benefited directly from this price surge [1]. Market Response - Despite Lianhua Technology's announcement on May 29 stating limited impact from the explosion, market expectations for K-amine price increases remained strong, with significant capital inflow into the stock [2]. - Major funds net inflow exceeded 200 million yuan on May 28, with continued inflows in subsequent days [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Lianhua Technology reported a net profit of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.17%, despite a revenue decline of 11.88% to 5.677 billion yuan [4]. - The improvement in profitability was primarily driven by a significant increase in the gross margin of its pharmaceutical business, which contributed nearly 50% of the total gross profit [4]. Pharmaceutical Business Overview - Lianhua Technology's pharmaceutical business generated 1.285 billion yuan in revenue, down 13.32% year-on-year, but with a gross margin increase of 13.13 percentage points to 47.95% [4][5]. - The company provides CDMO services, focusing on optimizing the production processes for pharmaceutical companies [5]. Future Prospects - Lianhua Technology anticipates growth in its pharmaceutical business by 2025, with potential commercial orders exceeding 200 million yuan from a collaboration with AstraZeneca [5]. - However, the number of clinical stage III products and their revenue have declined compared to 2023, indicating uncertainty in future performance [5]. CRO Market Potential - The demand for CRO services is expected to grow, with the Chinese CRO market projected to reach 187.8 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24.1% from 2021 to 2026 [6]. - Lianhua Technology's CRO business is still in the preparatory phase, with a significant drop in R&D spending in 2024 [6]. Valuation Concerns - As of June 9, Lianhua Technology's static P/E ratio was 85.45, significantly higher than the industry averages of 33.11 for agriculture and 29.81 for pharmaceuticals [6].