预警：今年全球贸易量或骤降18%

Group 1 - The OECD warns that the recent trend of de-globalization, exemplified by the U.S. tariff war, could lead to a reduction in global trade by up to 20% [1] - Countries like Canada, France, Germany, and the UK are particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to this trend [1][2] - The shift towards re-localization may result in GDP losses of up to 12% for certain countries compared to maintaining the current global trade system [2] Group 2 - The shipping industry is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with the SCFI index for the U.S. West Coast rising from $2,272 to $5,606, a 146.74% increase [3] - However, the high freight rates are expected to decline rapidly due to the recovery of shipping capacity and lower-than-expected cargo volumes [3][4] - Analysts predict that the surge in freight rates is a temporary phenomenon, and as supply chains stabilize and inventories increase, price pressures will diminish [4]