特斯拉股价跌回2022年！特马“撕破脸” 下跌才刚刚开始？

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has faced significant volatility due to political tensions and deteriorating fundamentals, leading to a downgrade in sales expectations from analysts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Tesla's stock price dropped 14% in a single day, erasing gains made earlier in the year, and has returned to 2022 levels [2]. - Baird Equity Research downgraded Tesla from "outperform" to "neutral," citing excessive uncertainties across multiple fronts [2][3]. - Among 18 Wall Street analysts, only 10 currently have a buy rating on Tesla, with the stock down 26% year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Sales Expectations and Political Risks - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered Tesla's Q2 delivery forecast from 410,000 to 365,000 units, below the consensus of 417,000 [2][5]. - Analysts express concern over the deteriorating relationship between Elon Musk and former President Trump, which could impact Tesla's operational benefits [3][4]. - Political risks are compounded by potential policy changes that could halve Tesla's operating profits, with estimated losses of $1.2 billion from the end of consumer EV tax credits and $2 billion from the cancellation of carbon tax credits [3][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Sales of Tesla vehicles have shown a divergence based on political affiliations, with red counties seeing increased sales while blue counties have declined [5]. - In Europe, Tesla faces weak sales and resistance from buyers due to Musk's political stance, while competition in China intensifies [5][6]. - Baird analysts have also adjusted 2026 delivery forecasts to reflect the impact of canceled EV tax credits, predicting only 6,000 robotaxis will be operational despite Musk's optimistic projections [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Optimism - Despite the negative outlook, some analysts maintain a relatively optimistic view on Tesla's long-term prospects, citing potential opportunities in robotaxi and robotics technology [8]. - Wolfe Research suggests that the impact of the proposed budget bill may not be as severe as predicted by others, indicating some resilience in Tesla's business model [7][8].