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Will the New Licensing Requirement Impact ET's Export Volume to China
Energy TransferEnergy Transfer(US:ET) ZACKSยท2025-06-09 12:21

Core Insights - Energy Transfer LP (ET) has significant exposure to the Chinese ethane market through its Orbit joint venture with Satellite Petrochemical, making China a crucial destination for ET's ethane exports [1][9] - New licensing requirements from the U.S. Commerce Department, effective May 2025, introduce uncertainty regarding existing agreements and future shipment volumes to China [2][9] - The licensing rule could delay or block ethane shipments, posing risks to ET's operations and revenues, especially at its Mont Belvieu and Nederland export terminals [2][9] Licensing Impact - Energy Transfer is preparing to apply for the necessary export licenses and is assessing the potential impact of denied or delayed authorizations on export volumes and revenue streams related to China [3] - Other ethane exporters, such as Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Phillips 66 (PSX), may also face challenges due to the new licensing requirements, with EPD already experiencing a notice of intent to refuse export licenses for shipments to China [5][6] Financial Performance - ET's stock has increased by 3.2% over the past three months, contrasting with a 4.3% decline in the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth for ET of 12.5% in 2025 and 1.88% in 2026, with current estimates for earnings per unit at $1.44 for 2025 and $1.47 for 2026 [12][13] Valuation Metrics - ET's current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 10.18X, which is lower than the industry average of 11.08X, suggesting that the company is undervalued compared to its peers [14][16] - Enterprise Products Partners is also trading at a discount with an EV/EBITDA of 10.07X [16] Zacks Rank - Energy Transfer holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook compared to other stocks in the market [17]