Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the rating for Mixue Group by several foreign investment banks has sparked significant market attention, yet the stock experienced a notable increase following the downgrade, indicating a complex market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Mixue Group's stock price rose over 9% in early trading on Monday, leading to a collective surge in other new consumption leaders, with Mixue closing up 5.41% [1]. - The inclusion of Mixue Group, along with Gu Ming and Bluetok, in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list on June 9 has provided a short-term boost, allowing southbound funds to purchase these stocks [1][4]. - Despite the positive short-term performance, analysts caution that high valuations and upcoming lock-up expirations may pose risks to stock prices in the medium term [1][4]. Group 2: Valuation and Analyst Ratings - Mixue Group's stock has seen a significant increase since its IPO, with a peak price of 618.5 HKD, representing a 205% rise from its initial offering price of 202.5 HKD [2]. - Merrill Lynch and UBS have downgraded Mixue Group's investment rating due to high valuations, with a current dynamic P/E ratio near 44 times, exceeding the industry average of 1.9 times [2]. - UBS highlighted that Mixue Group's overseas business has faced setbacks, with negative net openings and a 35% decline in same-store sales growth in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Risks - Domestic securities firms remain optimistic about Mixue Group, with Guosen Securities projecting a store count of 100,000 in the next five years, including 65,000 in China and 15,000 overseas [3]. - The upcoming lock-up expirations for various companies, including Mixue Group on September 3, 2025, could lead to significant selling pressure, impacting stock performance [5].
蜜雪集团等消费股昨日大涨，限售股解禁才是考验