2025 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 增持/维持 蜜雪集团(02097) 目标价: 435 昨收盘:410.40 蜜雪集团：门店数量超 4.6 万家，开店势能延续 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 6% 22% 38% 54% 70% 25/3/3 25/3/7 25/3/11 25/3/15 25/3/19 25/3/23 蜜雪集团 恒生指数 <<蜜雪冰城：供应链壁垒与下沉红利 双轮驱动，全球化打开长期空间>>-- 2025-03-04 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 1.48/1.48 总市值/流通(亿港元) 608.72/608.72 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 471.8/256 相关研究报告 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 证券分析师：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525030001 事件：蜜雪冰城公布2024年业绩，2024年公司实现营业总收入248.29 亿元，同比+22.3%，实现归母净利润 44.37 亿元，同比+41.4%。2024Q4 ...

2025 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 增持/维持 蜜雪集团(02097) 目标价: 435 昨收盘:410.40 蜜雪集团：门店数量超 4.6 万家，开店势能延续 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 6% 22% 38% 54% 70% 25/3/3 25/3/7 25/3/11 25/3/15 25/3/19 25/3/23 蜜雪集团 恒生指数 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 1.48/1.48 总市值/流通(亿港元) 608.72/608.72 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 471.8/256 相关研究报告 <<蜜雪冰城：供应链壁垒与下沉红利 双轮驱动，全球化打开长期空间>>-- 2025-03-04 证券分析师：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525030001 事件：蜜雪冰城公布2024年业绩，2024年公司实现营业总收入248.29 亿元，同比+22.3%，实现归母净利润 44.37 亿元，同比+41.4%。2024Q4 公 司实现营业总收入 61.69 亿元，同比+25.7%，实现归母净利润 9.50 亿元， 同比+29.1%。平均单店 ...

报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 饮料行业稳健增长，现制饮品赛道空间广阔，头部品牌有望不断集中。 现制饮品主要包含现制茶饮、现磨咖啡、其他现制饮品，市场规模庞大， 预计 2024 年现制茶饮行业规模为 3127 亿元，2023-2028 年复合增速为 17.3%。蜜雪冰城作为平价现制茶饮的绝对龙头，处于一个稳健增长且市 场集中度逐步提升的赛道。公司凭借其高性价比定位和广泛的门店覆盖， 在现制茶饮市场占据领先地位，门店数突破为 4.5 万家，产品均价为 7 元。同时，现磨咖啡赛道也处于高成长阶段，幸运咖作为公司旗下的咖 啡品牌，有望在下沉市场中占据更大份额。 公司作为现制茶饮行业的龙头企业，门店覆盖兼具广度与深度，盈利能 力稳健。公司股权结构稳定，核心管理团队经验丰富且年轻化。2020 年 以来，公司门店进入超高速扩张期，2024 年门店数突破 4.5 万家。门店 覆盖广下沉高，已实现 31 个省份全覆盖，主要集中在三线及以下城市， 三至五线城市合计占比 56.31%，一线城市仅占 5.2%。2024Q1-Q3，公司 总收入为 186.6 亿元，同比增长 21%，归母净利润为 34.9 亿元，同比增 ...

买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 20302 | 24829 | 28275 | 31997 | 35900 | | 同比(%) | 49.55 | 22.29 | 13.88 | 13.16 | 12.20 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3137 | 4437 | 5374 | 6085 | 6879 | | 同比(%) | 57.13 | 41.41 | 21.13 | 13.23 | 13.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 8.26 | 11.69 | 14.16 | 16.03 | 18.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 45.83 | 32.41 | 26.75 | 23.63 | 20.90 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 蜜雪集团（02097.HK） 2024 年业绩点评 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 24,828.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing a 22.3% increase from RMB 20,302.5 million in 2023[4] - Gross profit increased by 34.4% to RMB 8,060.2 million in 2024, up from RMB 5,999.0 million in 2023, driven by improved gross margins in product sales[7] - Net profit for the year rose by 39.8% to RMB 4,454.2 million, compared to RMB 3,186.6 million in 2023[14] - Revenue from product and equipment sales increased by 21.7% to RMB 24,208.8 million, while franchise and related services revenue surged by 52.8% to RMB 620.1 million[5] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the year were both RMB 12.32, an increase from RMB 8.71 in the previous year[55] - The group's profit attributable to equity holders for 2024 was RMB 4,436,504,000, an increase of 41.4% compared to RMB 3,137,341,000 in 2023[85] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 was RMB 12.32, up 41.4% from RMB 8.71 in 2023[85] - Total revenue for 2024 was RMB 15,558,470,000, compared to RMB 13,502,499,000 in 2023, reflecting a growth of 15.2%[73] Store Network Expansion - The company expanded its store network to over 46,000 locations across China and 11 other countries by the end of 2024[26] - The total number of stores in mainland China increased from 33,234 in 2023 to 41,584 in 2024, representing a growth of 25.1%[31] - The number of franchise stores rose significantly from 37,516 at the end of 2023 to 46,462 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 8,946 stores[35] - The company operates a network of over 46,000 stores, covering all provincial-level cities in mainland China and approximately 4,900 stores outside mainland China as of December 31, 2024[29] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash and financial assets, increased by 63.8% to RMB 11,109.5 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 6,783.6 million in 2023[15] - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 15,266,484 thousand, compared to RMB 10,859,253 thousand in 2023, showing a significant growth in asset base[57] - Non-current assets increased to RMB 7,887,271 thousand from RMB 5,445,381 thousand in 2023, indicating a strong investment in long-term assets[57] - The company's leverage ratio decreased to 23.9% as of December 31, 2024, down from 27.4% in 2023[21] Research and Development - Research and development expenses rose by 23.4% to RMB 104.9 million, maintaining a steady 0.4% of total revenue[11] - The company’s R&D efforts led to the development of a fresh milk base in 2024, aimed at enhancing product taste while meeting health demands[36] - The company aims to enhance its end-to-end supply chain and invest in new technologies and materials for R&D innovation to support its global strategy[43] Strategic Partnerships and Supply Chain - The company has established a strategic partnership with Junlebao to jointly build the "Xuewang Ranch," enhancing supply chain capabilities and product quality[36] - The logistics network includes 27 warehouses in mainland China and localized storage systems in four overseas countries, supporting extensive store coverage[36] - The company maintains rigorous quality control standards to ensure consistent high-quality output across its supply chain[37] Brand and Marketing - The "Snow King" IP has become the only super IP in China's fresh beverage industry, enhancing brand differentiation since its launch in 2018[38] - The "蜜雪冰城" topic on Douyin has achieved over 43.5 billion views as of December 31, 2024, showcasing the brand's strong online presence[39] - The company will continue to deepen its brand IP, "Snow King," by producing diverse high-quality content, including animations and collaborations with leading brands[44] Financial Management - The company did not declare any annual dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024[54] - The company raised approximately HKD 3,313 million from its global offering, which will be used for purposes outlined in the prospectus[51] - The company plans to utilize the net proceeds from the offering as short-term deposits in licensed banks or financial institutions if not used timely for the intended purposes[51] Other Financial Metrics - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 21.3% to RMB 1,599.5 million, accounting for 6.4% of total revenue, consistent with the previous year[9] - Other income and net gains decreased by 11.3% to RMB 219.5 million, primarily due to reduced government subsidies[8] - Government grants received decreased to RMB 32,784,000 from RMB 115,821,000, a decline of 71.7% year-over-year[72] - Interest income rose significantly to RMB 107,015,000, up 98.5% from RMB 53,801,000 in 2023[72] - The expected revenue to be recognized within one year from unfulfilled performance obligations is RMB 359,636,000, compared to RMB 259,271,000 in 2023, reflecting a 38.7% increase[71] - The total amount of unfulfilled performance obligations as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 367,458,000, an increase from RMB 284,246,000 in 2023[71] - The company has no sales to a single customer accounting for 10% or more of total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023[65] - The majority of the company's revenue and operating profit is derived from mainland China[64]

证券研究报告 蜜雪集团（2097.HK）首次覆盖报告： 长坡厚雪，缔造我国茶饮龙头标杆 投资评级： 买入|首次覆盖 蔡雪昱（首席分析师） SAC编号：S1340522070001 邮箱：caixueyu@cnpsec.com 杨逸文（分析师） SAC编号：S1340522120002 邮箱：yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 中邮证券 2025年3月25日 1 1 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ➢ 二十载磨砺，成就行业标杆。1997年创始人张红超在郑州创立寒流刨冰开启创业之路，截至24年Q3，蜜雪冰城构建的门店网络已超过 4.5万家，覆盖中国及海外11个国家。随着加盟门店网络扩张，公司营业收入持续增长，截至24年Q3，蜜雪冰城实现营业收入186.6亿元 。 ➢ 现制饮品行业：渗透提升，下沉和出海发展。全球饮品市场中，现制饮品保持快速增长，占比持续提升。分不同市场来看，中国市场 及东南亚现制饮品市场未来增长潜力遥遥领先。我国现制饮品保持快速增长，市场规模预计从2023年的5175亿元增长至2028年的11634亿 元，复合年增长率为11.59%。其中分不同价位带饮品市场来看，平价现制饮品未来增速显著快 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its competitive advantages and market positioning [4][47]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the ready-to-drink beverage sector, benefiting from multiple competitive advantages that facilitate rapid growth [4][7]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected CAGR of 18% from 2023 to 2028, indicating substantial future potential [16][18]. - The company has established itself as the largest player in the domestic market, with a market share of 20.9% as of Q3 2024, and a strong presence in both domestic and international markets [6][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 203.02 billion RMB in 2023 to 343.45 billion RMB by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.55%, 25.20%, 18.98%, and 13.56% respectively [5][47]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 31.37 billion RMB in 2023 to 55.98 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 57.13%, 42.58%, 14.45%, and 9.35% respectively [5][47]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high-quality and affordable product strategy, with an average price around 6 RMB, targeting a broad customer base [6][28]. - It holds the largest market share in the ready-to-drink beverage sector in China, with a significant increase in market share from 16.6% in 2021 to 20.9% in Q3 2024 [6][31]. - The company has a leading number of stores, with 45,302 locations as of Q3 2024, making it the largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally [6][35]. - The company emphasizes supply chain efficiency, achieving a high self-production ratio and maintaining lower procurement costs compared to competitors [6][37]. - The "Snow King" IP has become a significant marketing asset, enhancing brand recognition and consumer engagement [6][39]. Market Outlook - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is expected to grow from 5,175 billion RMB in 2023 to 11,634 billion RMB by 2028, with an increasing share of the overall beverage market [20][22]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for affordable ready-to-drink beverages, particularly in lower-tier cities where market growth is robust [20][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its competitive advantages and market positioning [4][47]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the ready-to-drink beverage sector, benefiting from multiple competitive advantages that facilitate rapid growth [4][7]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected CAGR of 18% from 2023 to 2028, indicating substantial future potential [16][18]. - The company has established itself as the largest player in the domestic market, with a market share that has consistently increased over recent years [9][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 20,302 million RMB in 2023 to 34,344 million RMB by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.55%, 25.20%, 18.98%, and 13.56% respectively [5][47]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 55.98 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a growth of 42.58% in 2024, followed by 14.45% and 9.35% in subsequent years [5][47]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high-quality and affordable product strategy, with an average price around 6 RMB, catering to a broad customer base [6][28]. - As of Q3 2024, the company has a total of 45,302 stores, making it the largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally by store count [6][35]. - The company emphasizes supply chain efficiency, achieving a high self-production ratio and maintaining lower procurement costs compared to competitors [6][37]. - The "Snow King" IP has significantly enhanced the company's marketing capabilities, contributing to a strong brand presence and customer engagement [6][38]. Market Outlook - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is expected to grow from 5,175 billion RMB in 2023 to 11,634 billion RMB by 2028, with a market share increase from 36.3% to 49.2% of the beverage market [20][22]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for affordable ready-to-drink beverages, particularly in lower-tier cities where market growth is robust [20][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijiu Group (02097.HK), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Mijiu Group is positioned as a leader in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage market, with a significant brand dominance reflected in its extensive store network and strong market presence [8][62]. - The company has a robust growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from 20.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 31.2 billion RMB by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.66% [1]. - Mijiu's net profit is expected to grow from 3.1 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.9 billion RMB in 2026, indicating a strong profitability outlook [1][62]. - The brand's unique IP, "Xue Wang," has significantly enhanced its marketing effectiveness, achieving over 43.5 billion views on social media platforms, which contributes to its brand recognition and consumer engagement [45][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Position and Brand Dominance - Mijiu Group operates over 40,000 stores, far surpassing competitors, which typically have between 3,000 to 9,000 stores, showcasing its market leadership [8][19]. - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2028, positioning Mijiu favorably within this high-growth market [14][15]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to reach 24.0 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 18.36% [1]. - Mijiu's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 8.26 RMB in 2023 to 15.64 RMB by 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [1]. 3. Competitive Landscape - Mijiu holds a market share of over 30% in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage sector, while competitors struggle to establish similar dominance in the mid-priced segment [29][34]. - The mid-priced beverage market is highly competitive, with brands like Luckin Coffee and others vying for market share, but Mijiu's position remains strong in the affordable segment [26][34]. 4. International Expansion and Future Outlook - Mijiu has begun its international expansion, with 4,792 stores outside of mainland China, primarily in Southeast Asia, indicating significant growth potential [54][61]. - The company aims to enhance its supply chain and marketing strategies to support its overseas growth, with plans to enter markets like Japan [58][62].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijiu Group (02097.HK), marking its first coverage [8][62]. Core Insights - Mijiu Group is positioned as a leader in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage market, with a significant brand dominance reflected in its extensive store network and strong market share [8][62]. - The company has a robust end-to-end supply chain and leverages its "Xue Wang" IP for effective brand marketing, which enhances consumer engagement and brand recognition [8][62]. - Mijiu's projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 43.8 billion, 51.2 billion, and 59.4 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28, 24, and 21 [8][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Position and Brand Dominance - Mijiu Group operates over 40,000 stores in China, significantly outpacing competitors, which typically have between 3,000 to 9,000 stores [8][19]. - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong market potential for Mijiu [14][15]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported total revenue of 13.576 billion RMB in 2022, with a projected increase to 31.232 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 31.15% [8][62]. - Mijiu's net profit for 2022 was 1.997 billion RMB, expected to rise to 5.937 billion RMB by 2026, showcasing a strong growth trajectory [8][62]. 3. Competitive Landscape - Mijiu holds a market share of over 30% in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage segment, while competitors struggle to establish a similar level of brand dominance [8][29]. - The mid-priced beverage market is highly competitive, with brands like Heytea and Luckin Coffee vying for market share, but Mijiu remains the clear leader in the affordable segment [8][19]. 4. Brand Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The "Xue Wang" IP has generated over 43.5 billion views on social media platforms, significantly enhancing brand visibility and consumer connection [8][45]. - Mijiu's marketing strategy integrates both online and offline channels, effectively reaching a broad consumer base [8][45]. 5. Expansion and Future Outlook - Mijiu is actively pursuing international expansion, with a focus on Southeast Asia, where it has already established a significant presence [8][54]. - The company aims to increase its overseas store count, which currently stands at 4,792, representing about 10.6% of its total stores [8][54].