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蜜雪冰城遭两大投行下调评级 被指估值过高 海外扩张不理想
MIXUE GROUPMIXUE GROUP(HK:02097) Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-06-09 14:50

Core Viewpoint - Both Bank of America and UBS have downgraded the rating of Mixue Ice City (02097.HK) due to high valuations and unsatisfactory overseas business expansion, indicating limited long-term growth potential [2][3]. Valuation Concerns - UBS downgraded Mixue Ice City from "Neutral" to "Sell," while Bank of America lowered its rating from "Neutral" to "Underperform" [3]. - UBS set a target price of approximately 477 HKD, while Bank of America adjusted its target price from 400 HKD to 465 HKD [3]. - As of June 9, Mixue Ice City's stock closed at 565.5 HKD, indicating a potential downside of 18.6% compared to UBS's target price [3]. Business Performance and Growth - Bank of America noted that recent sales growth was supported by unsustainable delivery platform subsidies, which may negatively impact future performance comparisons [4]. - The company's gross margin is under pressure, with expectations of a decline to around 30.5% in 2025, down from a stable range of 28.9% to 32.5% from 2021 to 2024 [4]. - Both banks expressed low expectations for Mixue Ice City's overseas business, predicting a decrease in overseas revenue contribution from 5.2% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 [4]. Competitive Landscape - Mixue Ice City faces intense competition in overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, which has led to lower-than-expected recovery [4]. - Bank of America highlighted operational challenges and a lack of attractive pricing in its overseas business [5]. Market Dynamics - The new consumption sector, which includes Mixue Ice City, is experiencing crowded trading, with significant stock price increases for peers like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold [6]. - Mixue Ice City's market capitalization reached approximately 214.7 billion HKD as of June 9, 2023 [6]. Future Outlook - Despite valuation pressures, UBS forecasts a strong growth momentum in Mixue Ice City's domestic business, projecting a 15% annual store growth rate over the next 3-4 years, aiming for a total of 70,000 stores by 2028 [7].