Starbucks(US:SBUX) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-09 15:14Core Viewpoint - Starbucks China has announced a collective price reduction for several non-coffee beverages starting June 10, with an average price drop of 5 yuan, reaching a minimum price of 23 yuan, marking the first systematic price cut for non-coffee drinks, reflecting significant changes in the Chinese coffee and tea market [1][26] Market Pressure and Consumer Behavior - Structural changes in the consumer demographic are reshaping consumption logic, with a projected 13 million college graduates by 2025 facing limited job opportunities, leading to income disparity and a decline in Starbucks' traditional customer base [3] - Starbucks' average transaction price has declined for eight consecutive quarters, with a 6% drop in same-store sales in Q1 2025 and a drastic reduction in transaction volume growth from 48% in 2023 to just 4% [3] Competitive Landscape - Local brands like Luckin and Kudi are leveraging supply chain efficiency to restructure pricing, with Luckin achieving a stock turnover of 18 days and a single-cup cost of 10.16 yuan, while Starbucks faces higher operational costs due to insufficient local production capacity [5] - Starbucks' same-store average price is expected to drop by 8% in 2024, with comparable transaction volume decreasing by 6%, creating a negative cycle of declining volume and price [5] Brand Positioning and Strategy - The brand's premium image, established through the "third space" model, is deteriorating as new store expansions face rental pressures and reduced foot traffic, leading to a retreat from prime locations [6] - Starbucks' pricing strategy has shifted to a dual-track approach, maintaining a premium price range of 30-40 yuan for coffee while offering non-coffee drinks at 23-35 yuan to attract a broader market [11] Cost Management and Supply Chain - Starbucks is working on localizing its supply chain to reduce costs, achieving over 90% local sourcing, but still faces a 30% higher single-cup cost compared to competitors [12] - The company plans to reduce store sizes and increase the use of self-service kiosks to lower operational costs [12] Short-term Gains and Long-term Risks - Initial results from the price reduction show a 30% increase in non-coffee drink sales in the first week, with a significant rise in younger consumers, but the loyalty of price-sensitive customers remains low [15] - The price cut has led to a loss of some high-end customers, with 22% of Starbucks Gold Card members feeling the brand has lost its premium appeal [16] Profitability Challenges - Following the price reduction, Starbucks' operating profit margin has decreased from 18% to 15%, nearing the breakeven point, necessitating strategies to enhance member spending and increase sales of high-margin products [19] - Future strategies include transforming stores into community spaces and deploying AI for inventory management to improve operational efficiency [20] Cultural and Product Localization - Starbucks is introducing localized products and plans to collaborate with cultural heritage IPs to enhance brand appeal while being cautious of over-localization that may dilute brand identity [23]