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21评论丨应从供需两端同时发力稳定物价
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-06-09 17:37

Core Insights - The overall price performance in May aligns with market expectations, with CPI showing "strong food, weak energy, and stable core" while PPI reflects "weak production materials and stable living materials" [1][2] CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining this level for three consecutive months, and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with seasonal trends [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is less than the seasonal decline of 1.1 percentage points, driven by increased seasonal vegetable supply and a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices [1] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, weaker than seasonal expectations, influenced by a decline in international crude oil prices [1] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline in production materials being the main factor affecting PPI [2][3] - Production materials saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, which is weaker than seasonal expectations, while living materials remained stable [2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Total demand remains insufficient, with external demand facing challenges as exports fell by 4.8% year-on-year in May, down from 8.1% the previous month [3][4] - Internal demand is also weak, as durable goods demand has not rebounded, and rental prices have shown weakness, indicating overall consumer demand remains low [4] Competitive Landscape - Certain industries are experiencing oversupply and "involution" competition, which exacerbates downward pressure on PPI [5] - The need for price recovery requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, including more proactive macro policies and addressing competitive pressures in the market [5]