21评论丨两大因素支撑我国出口韧性

Core Insights - In May 2025, China's exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in USD terms, while imports declined by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $103.22 billion [1] - The trade dynamics indicate a shift towards emerging markets, with ASEAN and Latin America becoming key partners, while exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% year-on-year in May [1][4] - The export structure is improving, with high-end manufacturing products gaining competitiveness, particularly in the semiconductor and transportation equipment sectors [5][6] Trade Performance - Exports to Europe and ASEAN markets were strong, with the EU seeing a 12.0% year-on-year increase and ASEAN exports growing by 14.8%, particularly to Vietnam and Thailand [1][4] - The shipbuilding industry experienced a notable growth of 43.7% in May 2025, supported by global demand and enhanced competitiveness [2] - Labor-intensive products faced pressure, with declines in categories such as bags, textiles, and toys due to the impact of US tariffs [2] Import Dynamics - Domestic manufacturing remains weak, with a marginal improvement in May 2025 due to US-China trade negotiations, but still below the growth line [3] - Imports of semiconductors and machinery increased by 6%, with significant growth in integrated circuits (33.4%) and data processing equipment [3] - Major bulk commodity imports like soybeans increased by 22.5%, while others like iron ore and crude oil saw declines exceeding 10% [3] Trade Diversification - The share of emerging markets in China's exports is rising, with the US share dropping from 14.7% in 2024 to 12% in the first five months of 2025, while ASEAN's share increased to 17.8% [4] - China's trade relationships with ASEAN are strengthening, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP [4] Future Outlook - The overall export resilience is expected to be supported by emerging market demand and stable relations with the EU, despite ongoing uncertainties from US tariff policies [6] - The high-end manufacturing sector's transformation is anticipated to enhance international competitiveness, with an expected export growth rate of 2% to 3% for the year [6]