乙烷供应趋紧 龙头企业将占据先机

Core Insights - The ethane market is experiencing supply tightness, leading to increased production costs for downstream industries, which may accelerate industry reshuffling and provide opportunities for leading companies with integrated supply chains [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Ethane is a key raw material in the production of ethylene, which is essential for plastics [2] - The supply-demand imbalance for ethylene oxide is expected to intensify from 2025 to 2029, concentrating profit distribution rights further upstream [2] - The current production of ethylene oxide in China primarily relies on naphtha cracking, while the ethane-mixed process faces shutdowns, allowing naphtha-based production to regain pricing power [4] Group 2: Company Strategies - Aoke Co., Ltd. (奥克股份) is the first listed company in the field of deep processing of ethylene oxide, holding a 40% market share in the domestic market for polyether monomers, and is expected to strengthen its leading position during price increases due to its 211 patented technologies and large-scale production advantages [2] - Hongqiang Co., Ltd. (红墙股份) is accelerating its national layout through a dual business model of "additives + fine chemicals," with a 150,000-ton/year polyether monomer project expected to commence production soon, enhancing cost control capabilities [2] - Hongqiang Co., Ltd. plans to start a 320,000-ton/year fine chemical project, which includes the production of various derivatives, thereby achieving industry chain integration and improving profitability and resilience against cyclical fluctuations [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The industry is expected to undergo a deep reshuffle by 2028, with smaller companies likely to exit due to cost pressures, leading to a further concentration of market share among leading firms [4] - Companies with low-cost procurement capabilities for ethylene oxide will have a competitive advantage in the upcoming industry reshuffle [4] - Strategic partnerships, such as Hongqiang Co., Ltd.'s collaboration with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (中海壳牌) for ethylene oxide procurement, are crucial for reducing transportation costs and securing lower purchase prices [4]