Core Insights - The latest survey from the New York Fed indicates a significant decline in inflation expectations across various time frames, with one-year expectations dropping from 3.6% to 3.2% [1] - The improvement in inflation expectations is broad-based, affecting different demographics, although food prices are an exception with a projected increase of 5.5% [2] - There is a slight improvement in perceptions regarding employment and personal financial outlooks, with a decrease in the proportion of respondents expecting to lose their jobs [3][6] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations decreased from 3.6% to 3.2%, three-year expectations fell from 3.2% to 3%, and five-year expectations dropped from 2.7% to 2.6% [1] - The only category with rising inflation expectations is food, which is expected to increase by 5.5%, the highest level since October 2023 [2] - Other major consumer categories, such as gasoline, healthcare, and rent, saw a decline in inflation expectations [2] Employment and Financial Outlook - The percentage of respondents expecting to be unemployed in the next 12 months decreased to 14.8%, down by 0.5% [3] - The average expectation for a higher unemployment rate in the next year also fell by 3.3% to 40.8% [3] - A lower percentage of respondents indicated that their financial situation would worsen in a year, with those unable to meet minimum payments dropping to 13.45% [6] Market Sentiment - Respondents expressed an increased probability of the stock market rising in the next 12 months [8] - The easing of trade tensions has contributed to a more optimistic consumer sentiment, which is seen as a positive signal for the administration [9] - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer inflation expectations to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation trends [10]
美联储调查:5月通胀预期全面下降,为2024年来首次
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-09 22:38