财说| 联化科技市值短期翻倍，但业绩还未到爆发期

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Lianhua Technology (002250.SZ) is closely linked to the explosion at Youdao Chemical in Shandong, which is the world's largest producer of chlorantraniliprole, leading to supply disruptions and price increases in the market [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - From late May to early June, Lianhua Technology's stock price increased by 95.07%, with a weekly rise of 43.18%, closing at 11.97 yuan [1] - The stock price surge is attributed to the expected reduction in chlorantraniliprole supply due to the explosion at Youdao Chemical, which holds a 30% share of global production [1] Group 2: Business Performance - In 2024, Lianhua Technology reported a revenue of 5.677 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 122.17% to 103 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [2] - The plant protection business contributed over 60% of revenue, with a recovery in order volume and price increases for certain pesticide products [2] - The company's CDMO business is expanding, with accelerated commercialization of client validation projects [2] - The new energy business has seen breakthroughs, with products like electrolytes completing trial production, contributing to revenue growth in functional chemicals [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The price of K-amine has surged from approximately 130,000-150,000 yuan/ton before the explosion to 230,000-280,000 yuan/ton after the incident, with expectations that it may exceed 400,000 yuan/ton in the third quarter [2] - As the largest legal producer of K-amine globally, Lianhua Technology is positioned to potentially achieve industry exclusivity and pricing power within two years [3] Group 4: Challenges and Limitations - Despite the potential for profit increase, Lianhua Technology's production capacity utilization was only about 35% in 2023, projected to rise to 40% in 2024, limiting the ability to fully capitalize on the increased demand [3] - The company currently has a long-term contract with FMC for K-amine, restricting external sales and price flexibility until the patent expires in November 2025 [3] - The current stock price increase may be premature, as the fundamentals for K-amine are unlikely to improve significantly before November this year [4]