装置开工率上升、需求季节性转弱 PTA供需关系或将转弱

Group 1: PTA Market Overview - In May, the PTA market showed a generally favorable fundamental situation with a continuous decline in social inventory, but the fundamentals began to weaken by the end of May as production facilities gradually restarted, leading to an increase in PTA operating rates [1] - The average PTA operating rate in May slightly decreased month-on-month, but the production volume remained high, with a total PTA production of 29.69 million tons from January to May, an increase of 840,000 tons or 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The restart of new PTA facilities is expected to increase supply, with the Jiangsu Shenghong 2.5 million tons/year PTA facility starting production on June 7, which will enhance supply expectations [2] Group 2: Textile Raw Material Demand - In May, the operating rates for polyester filament and short fibers remained stable, but began to decline towards the end of the month, indicating a seasonal weakening in textile raw material demand [3] - The operating rate for polyester bottle chips rose to 85.1% in mid-May due to recovering domestic demand and strong export markets, but the processing fee for bottle chips fell to a low of 200 yuan/ton, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates by the end of May [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - PTA social inventory showed a continuous decline in May, with a total reduction of 1.012 million tons from the peak in late February, reaching 4.469 million tons by June 6 [4] - The decline in inventory is attributed to production facility maintenance and good demand, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed as polyester operating rates began to fall and PTA operating rates increased [4] Group 4: Cost Factors - The cost side of PTA is influenced by crude oil prices and PX supply-demand dynamics, with current trends indicating a weak outlook for crude oil prices despite seasonal demand peaks in the U.S. [5] - PX supply-demand fundamentals are generally favorable, but PX prices are likely to remain weak due to the overall supply-demand situation in the polyester industry chain [6]