基差点价打通尿素产业链“任督二脉”

Core Viewpoint - The integration of basis pricing and futures hedging in the fertilizer industry effectively addresses supply chain challenges, stabilizes prices, and enhances risk management for agricultural stakeholders [11]. Industry Background - Since the implementation of supply-side structural reforms in 2015/2016, China's coal chemical urea production capacity has gradually decreased. The urea market saw a turning point in 2018 due to increased agricultural fertilizer demand driven by national food security strategies and rising industrial consumption from the real estate sector [6]. - The international situation, including trade frictions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has disrupted global fertilizer supply chains, leading to a peak domestic urea price of 3000 yuan/ton in 2022. This volatility has placed significant operational pressure on agricultural end-users due to delayed cost transmission [6]. Market Dynamics - The traditional trading model in China's agricultural input circulation system is dominated by a "buy low, sell high" strategy, which compresses procurement cycles and exacerbates market volatility. Retailers at the end of the supply chain often lack bargaining power, resulting in lower profit margins compared to provincial distributors [7]. - Approximately 18% of agricultural input trade volume has begun to adopt basis pricing models, but the penetration of futures tools remains limited due to farmers' lack of awareness [7]. Case Study - A company in Jiangsu experienced a decline in large granular urea prices from 1980 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton over two months. As demand weakened near the Spring Festival, the company utilized a basis pricing model to sell approximately 4500 tons of urea, successfully alleviating inventory pressure and managing price declines [9]. Recommendations - To effectively implement basis pricing models, three support systems need to be established: a hedging accounting system and futures coordination management at the enterprise level, risk-sharing contract structures at the cooperative level, and enhanced risk management education for farmers [10]. Conclusion - The "basis pricing + futures hedging + forward orders" model addresses supply-demand bottlenecks in the urea industry, securing reasonable profits for upstream companies, mitigating price volatility for downstream traders, and ensuring low-cost fertilizer access for farmers, thereby contributing to national food security [11].