美国220亿美元30年期国债拍卖将至 收益率飙升至近20年高点引发市场担忧

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming $22 billion 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction is drawing significant attention from global financial markets, as it will reflect the true demand for U.S. long-term debt amid widespread investor resistance to such securities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Auction Indicators - The auction results will serve as a critical gauge of market demand, with key indicators including the settlement yield difference from pre-auction trading levels and the bid-to-cover ratio [4]. - A recent $20 billion 20-year Treasury auction showed weak demand, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the highest awarded yield reaching 5.047%, approximately 1.2 basis points higher than the pre-auction rate [4]. - If the 30-year Treasury auction exhibits similar weak performance, it could heighten concerns about market demand and lead to a chain reaction affecting financing pressures [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing Long-term Debt - The U.S. Treasury market is facing multiple challenges, including a significant decline in the share of foreign official investors, which has dropped from nearly 70% in 2012 to an estimated 40% by the end of 2024 [5]. - Political factors are increasingly influencing long-term bond demand, leading to a decoupling of long-term interest rates from monetary policy, making long-term bonds a less attractive option [5]. - The U.S. government is projected to add trillions to the budget deficit over the coming years due to tax and spending legislation, contributing to a vicious cycle of increasing debt and interest payments [5].