铂金和白银抢走了黄金的风头

Core Insights - UBS research indicates that platinum prices have surpassed their 2025 year-end target and are approaching next year's price expectations, while silver has reached a 13-year high, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 90 [1][15]. Platinum Market Analysis - UBS maintains the view that both silver and platinum will outperform gold this year [1]. - Recent significant increases in implied volatility for platinum and silver contrast with the stable volatility of gold, indicating rising investor interest in these metals [4]. - Five common factors contributing to the strong performance of platinum and silver include: - Platinum breaking out of a range-bound market, signaling market tension [6]. - Clear signs of tightening supply in the platinum market, with the forward market in a state of backwardation since late 2024 [7]. - Anticipated supply gaps are expected to fundamentally support prices [8]. - Platinum's relative value attractiveness has begun to manifest after lagging behind gold [8]. - Technical breakthroughs at key resistance levels and thinner liquidity in the platinum market amplify price volatility [8][11]. Chinese Market Influence - There is a recovery expectation in Chinese jewelry demand, with indications that platinum is flowing into the Chinese market due to its cost advantages over gold in jewelry manufacturing [10]. - A significant increase in China's platinum imports in April has fueled market optimism and contributed to price increases by the end of May [10]. Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged to over $36, marking a 13-year high, driven by multiple factors including a rebound in base metal prices [15]. - Similar to platinum, silver has attracted substantial systematic and momentum trading funds following a breakthrough at key technical levels [17]. - The gold-silver ratio has significantly decreased to around 90, although it remains above the historical average of 68 [19]. - The potential impact of the Chinese market on silver demand is noteworthy, as China remains a net exporter of silver [21]. - UBS believes that silver still has room for further price increases, especially with the approaching expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [23].