高盛“无人驾驶”深度报告：汽车保险将重大变革 ，事故频率、理赔分布和法律责任都会改变

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the autonomous driving technology is transitioning from a proof-of-concept phase to a commercial phase, which is expected to create significant profit pools in shared mobility, freight, and insurance sectors [1][2]. - The North American Robotaxi market has officially entered the commercialization stage, with projections indicating that the U.S. autonomous driving shared mobility market will reach $7 billion by 2030, accounting for 8% of the total market [1]. - The global auto insurance market, valued at over $400 billion, is anticipated to undergo disruptive changes due to a decrease in accident frequency, leading to shifts in claims distribution and legal liability [1][2]. Group 2 - The U.S. auto insurance market is currently valued at $432 billion, representing 41% of the property and casualty insurance market [2]. - Despite the gradual penetration of autonomous driving technology, the insurance market is expected to maintain moderate actual growth over the next 10-15 years, driven by an increase in vehicle numbers and rising claims costs, which are above inflation levels but partially offset by declining accident frequency [2]. - Long-term, autonomous driving technology is likely to significantly reduce accident frequency, particularly those caused by human error, shifting insurance products from a "frequency-driven" model to a "severity-driven" model, where fewer accidents occur but the cost per incident is higher [2]. Group 3 - Current advancements in technology, such as Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), have begun to lower accident rates, with L2-level technologies reducing collision accident frequency by 14.4% and bodily injury accident frequency by 23.2% [3]. - Data from Waymo indicates that its vehicles have an accident rate that is 83% lower for airbag-deploying incidents and 81% lower for injury incidents compared to human drivers in cities like San Francisco and Phoenix [3]. - However, the complexity of these technologies has led to increased repair costs, resulting in the severity of claims (cost per incident) remaining consistently above inflation levels [3]. Group 4 - As autonomous driving technology permeates the auto insurance sector, the distribution of legal liability may shift from individuals to manufacturers or technology providers [4]. - This shift could alter the distribution of claims costs between physical damage insurance and liability insurance, prompting insurance products to transition towards product liability and cybersecurity insurance [4]. - Existing insurance companies that do not proactively develop relevant capabilities may fall behind in future competition, while automotive manufacturers like Tesla, General Motors (GM), and Rivian are beginning to enter the insurance business, seeking to capture market share but needing to demonstrate their underwriting capabilities [4].