高盛亚洲股票展望：更强调个股机会

Group 1: Market Overview - FTSE Russell announced the final revisions of its Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) quarterly review, with changes effective after market close on June 20 [1] - In Asia/emerging markets, China (+$1 billion), India, and Saudi Arabia (each +$100 million) are expected to see the highest passive fund inflows, while Japan (-$900 million) and Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico (each -$170 million to -$240 million) are projected to experience the largest outflows [1] - The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is expected to have a 12-month USD price/total return of 8%/11%, with a target level of 675 points [2] Group 2: Sector Ratings and Adjustments - Korea's rating was upgraded to "Overweight" due to domestic positive factors outweighing global cyclical risks, with a 12-month USD price/total return expectation of 13%/16% (KOSPI target of 3100 points) [1] - Taiwan's stock market rating was adjusted to "Neutral" after significantly underperforming the market year-to-date, with a 12-month USD price return expectation of 10% (TSEC target of 23,500 points) [1] - ASEAN region adjustments include downgrading Singapore to "Neutral" due to strong year-to-date performance and Indonesia to "Underweight" due to ongoing earnings downgrades [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - In the Chinese machinery industry, truck demand is accelerating while engineering machinery demand is slowing, influenced by replacement policies and seasonal factors [4] - Southeast Asia and Africa show strong demand for trucks and engineering equipment, while demand in CIS countries is weak [5] - The domestic factory automation (FA) demand is slightly weakening due to trade uncertainties, while process automation (PA) is improving due to equipment upgrade needs [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - Kuaishou's Kling AI reported an annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate exceeding $100 million as of March 2025, with monthly subscription bookings surpassing 140 million RMB ($14 million) in April and May [7] - Yili's management expects retail demand to remain weak, but anticipates a 5% growth in liquid milk sales in 2025, supported by healthier channel inventory levels [8] - Tingyi maintains its profit growth target despite revenue challenges, benefiting from cost advantages and flexible investments [9]