6.9纯碱日评：纯碱市场弱势下行 低价成交主导

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices decreasing by 10 to 60 yuan per ton across various regions, driven by weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of June 9, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1420 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1350-1470 yuan/ton. In East China, light soda ash prices are 1260-1520 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash is 1340-1420 yuan/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on June 9 is 1272.86, down by 5.71, a decrease of 0.45%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1321.43, down by 8.57, a decrease of 0.64% [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market shows a weak trend, with the main contract SA2509 opening at 1207 yuan/ton and closing at 1202 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 0.91%. The total open interest is 1,513,365 contracts, an increase of 117,554 contracts [5]. - The market is under pressure due to a combination of increased supply from resumed production and new capacity, alongside weak demand from the glass industry, leading to slow inventory turnover [5][6]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight recovery in supply as some production facilities resume operations. However, demand remains limited, and companies may resort to price reductions to alleviate inventory pressure [6]. - Overall, without significant positive developments, soda ash prices are likely to continue a weak and volatile trend, with attention needed on production resumption, downstream inventory replenishment, and market sentiment [6].