肖成伟：车用动力电池技术发展趋势

Core Insights - The core component of the automotive industry's electrification transformation is the power battery, which is a highly competitive segment within the industry [4] - In 2024, global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 17 million units, with China accounting for approximately 70% of the market share, maintaining its position as the world's largest market for ten consecutive years [5] - China is expected to produce around 0.5 TWh of power batteries in 2024, representing 60% to 70% of the global market share, significantly contributing to the electrification of both the Chinese and global automotive markets [5] Battery Technology Development - The development path of automotive power batteries is primarily based on lithium-ion technology, evolving from liquid lithium iron phosphate and liquid ternary lithium to solid-liquid hybrid batteries, with a future focus on all-solid-state battery systems [6] - Current energy density levels for lithium iron phosphate batteries can reach 190 Wh/kg, with volume energy density standards achieving up to 400 Wh/L [6] - Solid-state batteries are being researched globally, with various electrolyte types including oxides, sulfides, chlorides, and polymers being explored [7] Safety and Performance - Solid-state batteries offer significant improvements in safety performance, with thermal runaway temperatures reaching around 300°C, compared to 180°C for ternary liquid batteries and 220°C for lithium iron phosphate batteries [8] - The industry has seen successful trials of solid-liquid hybrid batteries, such as NIO's 360 Wh/kg battery, which can provide a driving range of 1,000 kilometers [8] Future Directions - Solid-liquid hybrid batteries are expected to exist for a considerable time as a transitional phase, with future research focusing on material systems, including high nickel and lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, and silicon-carbon anodes [9] - The cost of solid-state batteries remains high, estimated to be 5 to 10 times that of current liquid batteries, but is expected to decrease as production scales up [9] - The development of sodium-ion batteries is also underway, with plans to enhance their energy density to 200 Wh/kg and explore solid-state options [10] Standards and Definitions - The definition of all-solid-state batteries is based on standards set by the China Automotive Engineering Society, which includes specific criteria for weight loss during testing [10] - Many companies have achieved the technical indicators necessary for all-solid-state battery development, which is crucial for advancing this technology [10]