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高盛“无人驾驶”深度报告:中国市场增速将远超美国,2030年Robotaxi车队将达50万辆,14倍于美国
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-10 03:53

Group 1 - Waymo is deploying 1,500 Robotaxis in four U.S. cities, while Chinese tech companies are rapidly changing the global autonomous driving competition landscape with faster hardware cost reductions and policy support [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that by 2030, the number of Robotaxis on Chinese roads will exceed that of the U.S. by more than 14 times, highlighting China's significant advantages in cost control, technology deployment, and market scalability [1][2] - The focus of investors has shifted from technical feasibility to growth speed and market size, with China's Robotaxi market expected to grow significantly faster than that of the U.S. [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese Robotaxi market is projected to grow from approximately $54 million in 2025 to $12 billion by 2030, and further to $47 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 96% [2] - In contrast, the U.S. Robotaxi market is expected to grow from about $30 million in 2025 to $7 billion by 2030, with a growth rate only one-sixth that of China [2] - By 2030, China is expected to have around 500,000 Robotaxis compared to only 35,000 in the U.S., with projections indicating a fleet size of 1.9 million in China by 2035 [2] Group 3 - China demonstrates a significant cost advantage in autonomous vehicle (AV) production, with current costs around $44,000, expected to drop to $35,000 by 2030 and further to $32,000 by 2035 [3] - Baidu's sixth-generation AV costs approximately $29,000 (excluding battery), a 60% reduction from the previous generation, while Pony.ai's seventh-generation vehicles are priced between $17,000 and $33,000 [3] - In comparison, U.S. AV costs are projected to decrease from $85,000 in 2025 to $50,000 by 2030, indicating a slower cost reduction compared to China [3] Group 4 - China is exhibiting a faster pace of commercial deployment for autonomous driving technology, with numerous AV companies scaling up operations [4] - The penetration rate of Robotaxis in China is expected to rise from 0.1% in 2025 to 25% by 2035, driven by cost reductions, scale effects, urbanization, policy support, and local technological advancements [4] - The rapid decline in AV costs in China is laying the groundwork for large-scale commercial deployment, benefiting the entire autonomous driving supply chain [4]