铸造铝合金上市前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10, 2025, with specific trading and delivery details outlined [1][2][3]. Group 1: Futures Contract Overview - The trading code for aluminum alloy futures will be "AD," with a trading unit of 10 tons per contract and a minimum price fluctuation of 5 yuan per ton [1]. - The delivery month will have a price limit of 3% based on the previous trading day's settlement price, and the minimum trading margin will be 5% of the contract value [1]. Group 2: Delivery Details - The delivery commodity for aluminum alloy futures will be ADC12, following a brand and physical delivery system [2]. - The delivery unit is set at 30 tons, with the delivery date occurring two working days after the last trading day, and the settlement price will be based on the last trading day's closing price [2]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - The upstream of aluminum alloy production consists of recycled aluminum and primary aluminum, with a tight supply of scrap aluminum currently observed [6]. - Approximately 80% of scrap aluminum is used for producing low-value-added casting alloys, with ADC12 accounting for 71% of total scrap aluminum consumption [6]. - The domestic scrap aluminum prices are strong, with a price difference between clean and dirty scrap exceeding 3000 yuan per ton, indicating a tight supply situation [6]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recycled aluminum alloy sector faces overcapacity issues, with an operating rate of only 53%, which suppresses prices [7]. - The demand for aluminum alloys is primarily driven by the transportation sector, especially in the automotive industry, where aluminum is favored for its lightweight properties [9]. - The use of aluminum in new energy vehicles is significantly higher than in traditional fuel vehicles, with an increase of 14-40% in aluminum usage per vehicle as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 35% [9]. Group 5: Price Outlook - The current market conditions for aluminum alloys indicate high production capacity, moderate demand, and medium to low profits, with the current spot price around 19,300 yuan [10]. - The future price movements will depend on demand growth and policy support, with attention on the exchange's listing price compared to the current spot price [10].