本周三美国公布5月消费者价格指数

Group 1 - The core event indicates that the May CPI may see a rebound due to tariff impacts [2] - Tariffs are identified as the main reason for the inflation rebound, with the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious policy stance [3] - The trade policy direction is a key variable influencing future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - The April CPI review shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, raising expectations for interest rate cuts [4] - The May CPI is expected to accelerate to a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, primarily driven by tariffs raising prices of goods such as clothing, furniture, and auto parts [4] - Core CPI is projected to grow at a month-on-month rate of 0.3%, with year-on-year growth remaining at 2.8%, despite some service sector inflation easing [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley warns that the cost pressures from tariffs will become evident in May and peak in June [4] - Walmart executives have indicated that consumers will start feeling price increases from the end of May, with more noticeable effects in June [4] - If tariffs persist, Wells Fargo anticipates that core CPI growth will accelerate in the second half of the year, potentially reaching 3.3% year-on-year in Q4 [4] Group 4 - Other policy factors such as tightened immigration policies, deregulation, and tax cuts may also contribute to rising prices [4] - Federal Reserve officials believe the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, necessitating more data to assess economic direction [4] - The current policy focus is more on inflation risks rather than economic growth slowdown, as the job market remains robust [4] Group 5 - Market expectations suggest that investors anticipate two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, in September and December, contingent on CPI data and trade policy developments [4] - If the U.S. government reaches agreements with trade partners to ease tariff conflicts, inflationary pressures may alleviate, creating conditions for rate cuts [4] - Conversely, if tariffs continue, inflation may rise further, compelling the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy [4] Group 6 - The May CPI data is set to be released on June 11, which will validate whether inflation rebounds as expected [4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on June 12 will be crucial for observing the interest rate dot plot and economic outlook to determine the policy path [4]