LIANHE TECHNOLOGY(SZ:002250) Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-06-10 07:11Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lianhua Technology has surged significantly, driven by supply concerns in the chemical industry following an explosion at a competitor's facility, alongside improvements in the company's fundamentals and connections to trending sectors like CRO and new energy [4][5]. Stock Performance - Lianhua Technology's stock opened high and reached a peak increase of 5.11%, closing at 14.8 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 13.49 billion yuan [1]. - Since May 27, the stock price has increased by over 126% in the last 10 trading days [2]. Industry Context - The surge in Lianhua Technology's stock began after an explosion at Youdao Chemical's nitration reactor, raising concerns about the supply of chlorantraniliprole [4]. - Youdao Chemical is the world's largest producer of chlorantraniliprole, with an annual capacity of 11,000 tons [4]. Price Impact - Following the explosion, the price of Kamine, a key intermediate for chlorantraniliprole, skyrocketed from approximately 130,000-150,000 yuan per ton to 260,000-280,000 yuan per ton, with expectations to exceed 400,000 yuan per ton in Q3 [5]. - Lianhua Technology has a long history of producing Kamine and holds a significant share of patented products [5]. Business Model and Agreements - Lianhua Technology supplies Kamine exclusively to a single client under a long-term agreement with a cost-plus pricing model, which may limit immediate benefits from price increases [6]. - The company has stated that the explosion's impact on its operations is limited, but analysts believe it can still benefit through cost pass-through, capacity optimization, and technological advantages [7]. Financial Performance - Lianhua Technology reported a net profit increase of 17 times in Q1, with revenue of 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.02%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 1,747.04% [8]. - For the full year 2024, the company expects revenue of 5.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.88%, but a net profit of 103 million yuan, an increase of 122.17% [8]. New Energy Sector - In addition to its core business, Lianhua Technology is gradually entering the new energy sector, focusing on electrolyte products, which have achieved stable supply and increasing production [9]. - The company anticipates a breakthrough in revenue from its new energy business this year [9].