Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 智通财经网·2025-06-10 07:15Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2025-2026, driven by a significant decline in short-term yields rather than a substantial rise in long-term yields [1][4][6] Group 1: Yield Curve Expectations - The yield curve is expected to steepen due to a downward trend in overall yields, particularly in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Long-term yields may experience slight declines by the end of the year due to persistent high U.S. government budget deficits, while short-term yields are anticipated to decline significantly [1][4] - By the end of the year, the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to approach around 4% [4] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Morgan Stanley anticipates that inflation pressures related to tariffs will prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates in 2025, maintaining a hawkish stance [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are betting on a rate cut in September and December, contrasting with Morgan Stanley's outlook [3] Group 3: Long-term Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - Long-term Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated due to expanding budget deficits, potentially leading to increased "term premiums" [6][7] - The term premium, which compensates investors for holding long-term bonds, is currently at its highest level since 2014, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and inflation risks [7][8] - The anticipated increase in borrowing needs and government spending may exacerbate financing pressures in the market [8]