景顺：配置BBB级及BB级亚洲债券有望捕捉市场风险溢价 并创造稳健收益

Core Viewpoint - Invesco's outlook for Asian high-yield bonds indicates a positive trend with a total return of 2.7% year-to-date, suggesting that flexible allocation strategies focusing on BBB and BB-rated bonds can capture credit risk premiums and generate stable returns [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Asian high-yield bonds have shown a "V" shaped recovery from early April to May 2025, indicating limited direct impact from tariffs [1] - Despite strong returns in 2024, Invesco expects yield to be the main driver of returns in the second half of the year [1] - Selected B-rated bonds are anticipated to provide incremental returns, enhancing overall portfolio yield without excessive credit default risk [1] Group 2: Default Rates and Resilience - The default rate for Asian high-yield bonds (excluding real estate) is expected to remain low in 2025, with only a small portion of bonds reaching distressed yield levels [2] - Limited exposure to the oil and gas sector and resilient performance of commodity issuers with low cash costs contribute to this outlook [2] - Issuers are proactively refinancing upcoming debts or securing bank financing to manage their obligations [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Invesco favors bonds with yields between 8% and 10% for their ideal total return potential, contrasting with the volatility faced by equities [3] - The firm remains optimistic about subordinated financial bonds, priority lien bonds backed by renewable or infrastructure assets, and the Macau gaming sector, which are less affected by tariffs and have proven resilient post-COVID-19 [3] - Emerging market frontier sovereign bonds present unique excess return opportunities amid ongoing structural reforms and potential credit rating upgrades [3] - The yield spread between BB and BBB-rated bonds is narrowing, suggesting a focus on credit selection rather than simply overweighting BB-rated bonds [3]