“最被冷落的资产”要翻身？华尔街分析师看好小盘股逆袭

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment surrounding U.S. small-cap stocks is extremely low, which may create an opportunity for a significant rebound, according to Julian Emanuel from Evercore ISI [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Small-cap stocks have been underperforming compared to large-cap stocks for over a decade, and many on Wall Street consider them one of the least favored sectors [1]. - An internal survey by Evercore ISI indicates that the market's expectation for small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks by the end of 2025 has dropped to single-digit levels [1]. - Despite the weak performance of small-cap stocks year-to-date, Emanuel believes the current negative sentiment is a positive sign for future performance [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Small-Cap Stocks - Seasonal factors may trigger a rally, as historical data shows that small-cap stocks typically perform well in June, possibly linked to the annual adjustments of the FTSE Russell index [2]. - Small-cap stocks are currently valued lower than their long-term averages, which could support a continuation of the rally [2]. - Evercore ISI forecasts a 0.9% growth in U.S. GDP for 2025, which is expected to avoid a recession while not being strong enough to halt the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for small-cap stocks [2]. Group 3: External Influences - Easing trade war concerns and the passage of key budget proposals by President Trump may provide additional momentum for small-cap stocks [3]. - Previous predictions by analysts, such as Tom Lee from Fundstrat, suggested a potential 40% rebound for small-cap stocks, which saw some validation in mid-2020 but ultimately did not sustain [3]. - As of now, the Russell 2000 index has declined by 3.8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has increased by over 2%, although small-cap stocks have shown a strong start in June [3].