华尔街大佬：别盯着CPI了 逻辑核心已发生转变！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the upcoming CPI data release, the U.S. stock market may continue to rise, contrasting sharply with the pessimistic atmosphere observed during the market's drop to a 52-week low on April 8 [1] - The current logic shift is attributed to the delayed impact of tariffs, with businesses planning to pass on tariff costs by August, potentially leading to concentrated inflation pressure in Q3 [1] - Derivative traders are betting that the core CPI monthly rate will rise from 0.2% in April to 0.4% in August, before falling back below 0.2% by year-end, although these figures may not fully capture the risks of a wage-inflation spiral or economic recession [1] Group 2 - Barclays analysts noted that signs of stagflation have "quietly crept" into the data, with the upcoming inflation report possibly showing "concrete evidence of tariff-induced price increases" [2] - Gang Hu's predictions regarding inflation have been validated multiple times, and he now views tariffs as a double-edged sword that could either trigger a recession or compel the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, leading to a highly bifurcated economic outlook [2] - The significant market volatility this year reflects this uncertainty, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing both record highs and lows within a short timeframe, indicating that the market may remain stable even amid uncertainty [2]