中国需求引爆，单月反弹35%后，铂金飙涨还能持续多久？

Group 1 - Platinum has surged 35% since April, breaking the $1100 resistance and reaching $1220, marking a four-year high, driven by Chinese buyers' shift from volatile gold to relatively stable platinum [1] - In April, China imported 11.5 tons of platinum, the highest monthly figure of the year, indicating strong demand from the world's largest platinum consumer [1][7] - The platinum market is facing a structural supply shortage, with analysts predicting that global demand will continue to exceed supply over the next decade [3][6] Group 2 - Retailers in Shenzhen's jewelry market have doubled in number within a month, reflecting the growing interest in platinum as a substitute for gold [3] - Retailers are experiencing increased pressure and longer wait times for platinum products as they transition from gold to platinum, which requires different manufacturing processes [4] - The first quarter of this year saw a more than doubling of demand for platinum bars and coins in China, surpassing North America as the largest retail investment market for platinum [7] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs noted a significant increase in total open interest in platinum futures, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders [5] - The platinum/gold ratio remains disappointing, but there is a belief that platinum will continue to lead due to its correlation with the automotive industry [5] - Long-term investors are heavily involved in the current price surge, with momentum traders entering the market following the breakout above $1100 [8][10] Group 4 - Supply tightness is expected to persist into June and July, with potential continuation until the end of 2025 if Chinese demand remains strong [10] - The sustainability of the current price rally will depend on whether the fundamentals can support it once speculative trading subsides [10]