印度国运断了！制造业越搞越亏，靠啥跟中国拼？

Core Insights - India's manufacturing sector has declined from 16.5% of GDP in 2014 to 14.1% in 2024, indicating a regression in industrialization efforts over the past decade [1] - Infrastructure projects, such as the high-speed rail line, have faced significant delays due to land acquisition issues, with only 10 kilometers completed by 2024, originally scheduled for completion in 2022 [1][3] - The reliance on landowners and the lack of government authority to enforce land acquisition have hindered infrastructure development [3] Education and Workforce Challenges - The quality of education in India is poor, with 2022 data showing that third-grade students struggle to read first-grade texts, and 40% of sixth graders cannot perform basic arithmetic [3] - The definition of literacy in India is overly simplistic, with "being able to write one's name" counted as literacy, raising concerns about the quality of the workforce [3] - There is a preference among the youth for software jobs over low-end manufacturing, leading to a shortage of skilled workers in the manufacturing sector [3][4] Manufacturing Sector Limitations - India's manufacturing industry lacks a robust heavy industry base, resulting in reliance on imports for equipment and raw materials, contributing to a projected trade deficit of $189 billion for 2024-2025, with a $99.2 billion deficit against China alone [4] - The failure of Modi's $23 billion initiative to boost manufacturing is attributed to over-reliance on external factors, such as U.S. efforts to restructure supply chains, which have not materialized as expected [6] - Systemic issues, including land reform challenges, inadequate education, incomplete supply chains, and policy reliance on external support, are significant barriers to India's industrial growth [6]