【工业硅】利空拖累对冲盼涨情绪，弱平衡究竟何时能否“破局”？

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor increase in prices, but overall supply pressure remains significant, leading to potential downward price movements in the future [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On June 10, the main contract for industrial silicon closed at 7415, up by 60 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.82% increase, although the closing price was still down by 60 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The total trading volume for the main contract was 440,221 lots, with an open interest of 155,627 lots, and the current total open interest stands at 639,121 lots [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price recovery in the futures market has provided some confidence to the otherwise sluggish spot market, but the overall supply situation remains loose, with factories planning to resume production, which may increase supply pressure [3][7]. - The reduction in electricity prices during the flood season is expected to weaken cost support, potentially leading to further price declines as some factories may lower prices to alleviate pressure [3][7]. Raw Material Trends - The market for raw materials such as polysilicon and organosilicon remains stable, with no significant changes observed [5]. Future Considerations - The stability of industrial silicon prices is fragile, and market participants should closely monitor several factors: 1. The progress and scale of factory resumption [7] 2. The extent of electricity price reductions during the flood season [7] 3. The sustainability of the futures market rebound [7] 4. The resilience of downstream demand in key application areas [7] 5. The actual progress of inventory digestion in both social and factory stocks [7]