0610：川普施压美联储降息100个基点，意欲何为？！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure from former President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, highlighting the urgency to reduce the U.S. debt burden as total liabilities reach $36.89 trillion by May 26, 2025 [2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - As of the 2024 fiscal year, the total U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $38.5 trillion, with federal debt surpassing 120% of GDP and total public debt exceeding 130% of GDP [5][6]. - Interest payments for the 2024 fiscal year are expected to exceed $1 trillion, with an average annual increase of $190 billion over the past three years [6][8]. - The net interest expenditure for the federal government is projected to be $881.1 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for approximately 3.1% of GDP, with an increase to $952.3 billion and 3.2% of GDP anticipated in the 2025 fiscal year [8]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - Current yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are between 4.5% and 5%, and a 100 basis point rate cut could reduce interest expenses by $112 billion, assuming total financing needs of $11.2 trillion for the year [9][10]. - The refinancing of maturing debt is estimated at $9.2 trillion, with an additional $2 trillion needed to cover the annual budget deficit, leading to a total financing requirement that exceeds 30% of GDP [10]. Group 3: Market Implications - Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions will test the bond market's resilience amid declining global demand for long-term U.S. debt, with $58 billion in 3-year bonds, $39 billion in 10-year bonds, and $22 billion in 30-year bonds scheduled for auction [10][11]. - Strong demand for these long-term bonds could alleviate short-term concerns, but poor demand may lead to increased financing costs and potential market volatility [11].