快手-W(01024.HK):可灵商业化超预期 看好AI带来业绩和估值弹性
Ge Long Hui·2025-06-10 17:57

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Kuaishou's Keling AI technology is globally leading, with commercial performance exceeding expectations and potential for both short-term revenue contribution and long-term growth [1][2] - Keling AI generated over RMB 150 million in revenue in Q1 2025, with an annualized revenue run rate exceeding USD 100 million as of March 2025 [1] - The monthly paid amount for Keling AI exceeded RMB 100 million in both April and May 2025, indicating strong revenue growth and positioning among global video generation models [1] Group 2 - Keling AI 2.0 was launched in April 2025, showcasing significant upgrades in dynamic quality, semantic response, and visual aesthetics, maintaining a global leadership position [2] - Keling AI's collaboration with NetEase's popular game "Nirvana in Fire" opens new commercial pathways by allowing players to convert static images into dynamic visuals [2] - The partnership enhances social gameplay within the game and expands Keling AI's commercial opportunities in the gaming sector [2] Group 3 - Kuaishou's main business remains robust, with domestic user engagement leading the market, and the company achieving operational profit in overseas markets for the first time in Q1 2025 [3] - Daily active users (DAU) reached 408 million, marking a record high, while the company continues to lower user acquisition costs and improve user retention through content enrichment [3] - Overseas revenue grew by 37.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.3 billion, reflecting effective cost control measures [3] Group 4 - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, maintaining a buy rating due to the long-term competitive advantage of its video models [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to RMB 143.9 billion and RMB 158.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit expectations lowered to RMB 20.3 billion and RMB 23.9 billion [4] - The company’s valuation shows significant recovery potential, with a projected PE ratio of 11x for 2025 and 10x for 2026, compared to peer companies like Tencent and NetEase [4]