Casey's Surges on Strong Q4, More Gains Likely Ahead

Core Viewpoint - Casey's General Stores has shown significant growth, with stock prices increasing over 200% in the last four years, and has the potential for further triple-digit percentage increases in the future [1] Financial Performance - In FQ4, Casey's reported net revenue of $3.99 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.8%, driven by a 9.2% rise in store count and a 1.7% increase in inside comparable sales [9] - Inside comparable sales increased by 7.4% over two years, while fuel gallon comps were flat at 0.1%, but operating profit increased by 21.45% due to improved margins [10][11] - EBITDA rose by 20.1%, net income increased by 13%, and GAAP earnings grew by 12.4% [11] Growth and Guidance - The company anticipates continued growth into FY2026, forecasting 11% EBITDA growth at the midpoint and inside sales comps near 3.5% [12] - The dividend yield is approximately 0.45%, with a reliable payment history and an expected annual increase, having risen for 26 consecutive years [5][6] Operational Quality and Acquisitions - Casey's halted share buybacks in F2025 to prepare for the acquisition of Fikes, which is already contributing positively to results [2][3] - The balance sheet shows increased current assets by 22% and total assets by 29%, leading to a 16% increase in shareholder equity, which stands at over $3.5 billion [8] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating for Casey's, with a consensus price target of $434.92, indicating a potential downside of 12.6% from the current price [9][14] - The overall sentiment among analysts is positive, with expectations for continued stock price increases following the recent quarterly results and guidance updates [13]