Core Viewpoint - Casey's General Stores is experiencing a positive uptrend, supported by strong FQ3 results that affirm both near and long-term outlooks, leading to a share price increase of over 5% [1][12] Financial Performance - In FQ3 2025, Casey's reported consolidated revenue of $3.9 billion, reflecting a 17.1% year-over-year increase, driven by organic growth and acquisitions, surpassing MarketBeat's consensus by 420 basis points [4] - Inside sales grew by 15%, while gasoline gallons sold improved by 20.4%. On a comparable store basis, inside sales rose by 3.7%, and gasoline gallons increased by 1.8% [4] - The company maintained its comp-store growth target of 3% to 5% and increased its FY EBITDA growth outlook by 100 basis points to 11% [5] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The 12-month stock price forecast for Casey's is $423.09, indicating a 6.94% upside, with a Moderate Buy rating based on 11 analyst ratings [6] - The stock has risen 37% over the past twelve months, with recent revisions suggesting a potential 7.5% upside, which could lead to new all-time highs [7] - Institutional buying has increased, with Q1 2025 activity reaching a multiyear high, as institutions own over 70% of the stock [8] Balance Sheet and Capital Management - Casey's has suspended share buybacks in preparation for the Fikes acquisition but is expected to resume them soon. Total assets increased by nearly $1.9 billion, about 30%, while liabilities rose by $1.5 billion [10] - Equity increased by 13.2%, and long-term debt leverage remains low at less than 1x equity, ensuring positive cash flow and a safe dividend yield of approximately 0.5% [11]

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call March 12, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Brian Johnson - SVP of IR and Business Development Darren Rebelez - Chairman, President and CEO Steve Bramlage - CFO Conference Call Participants Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Melius Research Anthony Bonadio - Wells Fargo Bonnie Herzog - Goldman Sachs Mike Montani - Evercore ISI Bobby Griffin - Raymond James Krisztina Katai - Deutsche Bank Kelly Bania - BMO Capital Markets Chuck Cerankosky - N ...

Casey's General Stores delivered solid results in its fiscal 2025 third quarter, beating analysts' expectations on multiple fronts and showcasing strategic growth. Casey’s General Stores (CASY -0.78%), a prominent convenience retail chain, released its fiscal 2025 third-quarter earnings results on March 11. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.33, beating analysts' consensus estimate of $2.00, while revenue totaled $3.904 billion compared to the expected $3.723 billion. Overall, the quarter showcased robu ...

Financial Performance - Net income for the third quarter was $87.1 million, flat compared to the prior year, with diluted EPS also flat at $2.33[5] - Total revenue for the third quarter increased by 17.2% to $3.9 billion, driven by a 15.3% rise in inside sales and a 20.4% increase in fuel gallons sold[18] - EBITDA for the third quarter rose 11.4% to $242.4 million, primarily due to higher inside and fuel gross profit[6] - Net income for the nine months ended January 31, 2025, was $448,213 thousand, compared to $414,952 thousand for the same period in 2024, reflecting an increase of 8.0%[22] - Net income for the three months ended January 31, 2025, was $87,097,000, compared to $86,933,000 for the same period in 2024, reflecting a slight increase[27] - EBITDA for the nine months ended January 31, 2025, reached $937,030,000, up from $840,372,000 in 2024, indicating a growth of approximately 11.5%[27] Sales and Revenue Growth - Inside same-store sales increased by 3.7% year-over-year, with prepared food and dispensed beverage same-store sales up 4.7%[7] - Same-store fuel gallons sold increased by 1.8%, with total fuel gross profit up 17.4% to $302.1 million[8] - Revenue for the three months ended January 31, 2025, was $3,903,633 thousand, up from $3,329,247 thousand in the same period of 2024, indicating a growth of 17.2%[24] - Same-store sales growth for prepared food and dispensed beverage was 4.7% for the fiscal year 2025[24] Expenses and Liabilities - Total operating expenses increased by approximately 18%, influenced by operating 254 additional stores and one-time costs from the Fikes acquisition[9] - Total liabilities increased to $4,802,862 thousand as of January 31, 2025, from $3,332,052 thousand on April 30, 2024, an increase of 43.9%[20] - Interest expenses increased to $29,415,000 for the three months ended January 31, 2025, compared to $14,146,000 in 2024, showing a significant rise[27] - Federal and state income taxes for the nine months ended January 31, 2025, totaled $136,578,000, compared to $129,020,000 in 2024, marking an increase of about 5.4%[27] - Depreciation and amortization expenses for the three months ended January 31, 2025, were $105,203,000, up from $88,950,000 in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 18.3%[27] Liquidity and Capital - As of January 31, 2025, the company had approximately $1.3 billion in available liquidity, including $395 million in cash[12] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period increased to $394,815 thousand from $177,881 thousand year-over-year, a rise of 121.5%[22] - The company reported a significant increase in payments for acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired, totaling $1,211,567 thousand for the nine months ended January 31, 2025, compared to $296,809 thousand in 2024[22] Future Outlook - The company expects fiscal year 2025 EBITDA to increase approximately 11% and plans to add around 270 stores[15][16] - The company is exploring growth opportunities and potential impacts from the Fikes transaction, with expectations for future periods being cautiously optimistic[28] - The company acknowledges risks related to the execution of its strategic plan and the integration of acquired stores, which may affect future performance[28] Corporate Governance - The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on May 15, 2025[14] - The earnings conference call is scheduled for March 12, 2025, at 7:30 a.m. CDT, providing an opportunity for investors to gain insights into the company's performance[29] - Corporate information and earnings details can be accessed through the company's investor relations website[29] - Investor relations contact is Brian Johnson, reachable at (515) 446-6587, for any inquiries related to financial performance[30]

Store Operations - As of January 31, 2025, Casey's operates a total of 2,893 stores, with 228 new stores added through acquisitions, including 198 from the Fikes acquisition[74]. - Operating expenses increased by $101,292 (17.8%) to $670,200, with approximately 14% of the increase attributed to operating 254 more stores[88]. - Operating expenses increased by $179,887 (10.5%), with approximately 8% attributed to operating 254 more stores compared to the prior year[98]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 increased by $574,386 (17.3%) compared to the same period in fiscal 2024, primarily driven by the Fikes acquisition[82]. - Net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 was $87,097, slightly up from $86,933 in the comparable period[92]. - Total revenue for the first nine months of fiscal 2025 increased by $685,243 (6.1%) to $11,948,141 compared to $11,262,898 in the prior year, primarily driven by $459,422 from the Fikes acquisition[93]. - Net income increased by $33,261 (8.0%) to $448,213, driven by higher profitability in-store and in fuel, partially offset by increased operating expenses[102]. - EBITDA for the first nine months of fiscal 2025 increased by 11.5% to $937,030 compared to $840,372 in the prior year[105]. Revenue Breakdown - Same-store sales of prepared food and dispensed beverage increased by 4.7%, while grocery and general merchandise increased by 3.3% during the quarter[80]. - Fuel revenue increased by $315,148 (15.4%) due to a 20.4% increase in gallons sold, despite a 4.2% decrease in average retail price per gallon[82]. - Other revenue increased by $73,772 (117.8%) for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, primarily driven by an increase in wholesale fuel revenue from the Fikes acquisition[83]. - Prepared food and dispensed beverage revenue increased by $115,402 (10.4%) due to a same-store sales increase of 4.4% and approximately 6.0% from store growth[93]. - Grocery and general merchandise revenue rose by $295,035 (10.4%) with a same-store sales increase of 2.6% and approximately 7.8% from store growth[93]. - Retail fuel revenue increased by $211,611 (3.0%) due to an increase in gallons sold by 244,531 (11.5%), despite a 7.6% decrease in average retail price per gallon[93]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash provided by operating activities increased by $152,396 to $756,996, primarily from improved revenue less cost of goods sold[109]. - Cash used in investing activities increased by $920,353, totaling $1,537,066, primarily due to acquisition-related activity from the Fikes acquisition[110]. - Cash provided by financing increased by $1,157,278, mainly due to proceeds from long-term debt of $1,100,000 to partially fund the Fikes acquisition[111]. Debt and Interest Rates - As of January 31, 2025, the company's total long-term debt amounts to $2,439,038,000 after accounting for current maturities and debt issuance costs[112]. - The company has a variable rate incremental term loan facility of $850,000,000, requiring quarterly installments ending October 30, 2029[112]. - An immediate 100-basis-point move in interest rates would result in an approximate annualized impact of $10.4 million on interest expense[120]. - The company has issued various senior notes with interest rates ranging from 2.85% to 5.43%, with total senior notes amounting to $1,000,000,000[112]. Risk Factors - The company faces risks from increases in food ingredient costs and potential disruptions in the distribution network[114]. - The company is subject to extensive governmental regulations that could adversely affect revenues, particularly related to tobacco and nicotine products[115]. - The company acknowledges that general economic conditions and consumer preferences may impact its financial condition and results of operations[116]. - The company emphasizes the importance of compliance with data security regulations to protect sensitive information, which could impact financial results[114]. EV Infrastructure - Casey's has 230 EV charging stations at 47 stores across 13 states as of January 31, 2025, reflecting its commitment to expanding EV infrastructure[77]. Taxation - The effective tax rate decreased to 19.2% in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, down from 24.1% in the same period of fiscal 2024[91]. Hedging Strategies - The company utilizes futures contracts to hedge against the volatility of fuel prices associated with non-store inventoried fuel[121]. Future Capital Needs - Future capital needs for operations and store growth are expected to be met from cash generated by operations and additional long-term debt[112].

Core Insights - Casey's General Stores, Inc. is set to release its third-quarter financial results on March 11, with expected earnings of $2.08 per share, a decrease from $2.33 per share in the same quarter last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $3.74 billion, an increase from $3.33 billion a year earlier [1] - Casey's shares experienced a decline of 4.3%, closing at $381.68 [2] Analyst Ratings - BMO Capital analyst Kelly Bania reinstated a Market Perform rating and raised the price target from $400 to $450 [3] - Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $451 to $454 [3] - Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a price target of $400 [3] - Wells Fargo analyst Anthony Bonadio maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $415 to $425 [3]

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings results on March 11, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3,786 million, indicating a 13.7% increase compared with the same quarter last year.Casey’s earnings per share is also expected to decline year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, now pinned at ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Casey's General Stores (CASY) to report quarterly earnings of $1.83 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 21.5%, while revenues are projected to be $3.83 billion, an increase of 15.1% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - There have been no revisions in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [1][2]. Revenue Projections - Analysts forecast 'Net Sales- Fuel' at $2.36 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.2% [4]. - 'Net Sales- Other' is expected to reach $79.98 million, indicating a growth of 27.7% year-over-year [4]. - 'Net Sales- Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage' is projected at $399.94 million, reflecting a 14.5% increase from the prior year [4]. - 'Net Sales- Grocery & General Merchandise' is estimated to be $993.32 million, showing a 14.8% change from the previous year [5]. Store and Sales Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Number of Stores (EOP)' is 2,902, up from 2,639 a year ago [5]. - Analysts predict 'Number of Fuel gallons sold' to be 810.30 million, compared to 689.25 million in the previous year [5]. - 'Same-store sales - Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage - YoY change' is expected to be 4.7%, down from 7.5% a year ago [6]. - 'Number of Stores (BOP)' is projected to reach 2,685, up from 2,521 year-over-year [6]. Gross Profit Estimates - 'Gross Profit- Grocery & General Merchandise' is estimated at $341.58 million, compared to $293.18 million last year [7]. - 'Gross Profit- Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage' is projected at $232.18 million, up from $208.33 million year-over-year [7]. - 'Gross Profit- Other' is expected to be $27.91 million, slightly up from $27.77 million in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Gross Profit- Fuel' is estimated at $311.54 million, compared to $257.25 million a year ago [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Casey's have returned -5.7%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has seen a -4.1% change [8].

Core Insights - Insider buying activity is closely monitored by investors as it can provide insights into the long-term outlook of companies [1][10] FedEx (FDX) - FDX shares have gained approximately 12% over the past year, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 [3] - The CFO of FedEx recently purchased 1,000 shares for just under $275,000, increasing total shares owned by over 10% [4] Casey's General Stores (CASY) - CASY shares have performed strongly, gaining nearly 40% over the past year and outperforming the S&P 500 [5] - A director purchased 500 shares at a total cost of just under $200,000, increasing the total stake by more than 20% [8] Centene (CNC) - CNC shares have declined nearly 20% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 [9] - Several insiders made purchases totaling approximately $1.6 million just before the Christmas holiday, although the near-term outlook remains bearish with analysts revising expectations downward [9]

Valuation and Stock Performance - Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 26.09X, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 22.68X and the S&P 500's average of 22.23X, indicating that the stock is overvalued [1] - Over the past month, shares of CASY have lost 5.1%, while the industry and S&P 500 declined by 5.3% and 0.8%, respectively [3] - Closing at $396.76, shares are trading below the 50-day simple moving average of $409.10, raising concerns about the stock's short-term outlook [4] Operating Expenses and Profitability Challenges - Casey's is facing rising operating expenses, which increased by 5.2% year-over-year to $609.7 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, primarily due to the operation of 93 additional stores [6] - The trend of rising operating expenses has been consistent over the past two quarters, with increases of 8.7% and 11% respectively, which could pressure profit margins [7] - The acquisition of Fikes is expected to significantly increase operating expenses, with one-time integration costs projected between $15-$20 million in the third quarter and total operating expenses expected to grow by 11-13% for fiscal 2025 [8] Sales Performance and Growth Initiatives - Casey's reported a 0.6% decline in same-store fuel gallons sold for the fiscal second quarter, with a contraction in fuel margin to 40.2 cents per gallon from 42.3 cents the previous year [10] - The prepared food and dispensed beverage segment, crucial for profitability, saw a gross margin decline of 30 basis points year-over-year to 58.7%, driven by rising input costs [11] - Inside sales grew by 9% year-over-year to $1.47 billion, supported by strong performance in prepared foods and beverages [17] Future Outlook and Strategic Plans - Casey's has reaffirmed its full-year guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting inside same-store sales growth of 3% to 5% and at least a 10% increase in EBITDA [18] - The company plans to open approximately 270 new stores during the fiscal year to drive continued revenue growth [18] - Casey's maintains a strong liquidity position with $1.25 billion as of October 31, 2024, and generated $160 million in free cash flow for the fiscal quarter, up from $145.6 million year-over-year [19]