以后50%的中国人，买房可能会“买得起，住不起”，3项成本难以负担

Core Insights - The recent draft policy on affordable housing in Shenzhen has caused significant concern among property owners, as it prohibits the conversion of certain types of affordable housing into commercial properties, marking a shift from previous regulations [1][4][5] Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - The new policy categorizes affordable housing into three types: public rental housing for low-income individuals, guaranteed rental housing for young workers, and shared ownership housing for those with general needs. The key change is that shared ownership housing cannot be converted into commercial properties [1] - The current housing market is experiencing a significant decline in prices, with examples such as properties near subway stations in Zhengzhou dropping to around 2000 yuan per square meter, while the price of shared ownership housing remains around 6000 yuan per square meter [7][9] - There is a notable mismatch between the supply of affordable housing and market demand, with a reported shortfall of 14.07 million units against a total affordable housing stock of only 5% of the total housing supply in 2022 [7] Group 2: Rising Costs of Homeownership - Homeownership costs are increasing due to three main factors: rising property management fees, escalating housing pension costs, and the potential introduction of property taxes [11][14][16] - Property management fees in first- and second-tier cities are projected to reach 2.5-3 yuan per square meter by 2025, reflecting a 250%-300% increase since 2000 [11][12] - The housing pension scheme, which combines personal and public accounts, is expected to add significant costs for homeowners, with examples showing annual contributions of around 1200 yuan for an 80 square meter apartment [14] - The anticipated property tax could further increase the cost of homeownership, with estimates suggesting that homeowners may face annual taxes equivalent to a significant portion of their income [16] Group 3: Future Market Considerations - The trend indicates that a significant portion of the population may face a situation where they can afford to buy homes but cannot afford to maintain them, leading to a "buying but not living" scenario [5][9] - Homebuyers are advised to avoid older properties without advantageous locations or amenities, as these may continue to depreciate in value [18] - It is recommended that potential homeowners consider the long-term costs associated with property ownership, including management fees, pensions, and taxes, to avoid financial strain [19][21]