McDonald's(US:MCD) Jin Rong Jie·2025-06-10 23:11Core Insights - The rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs is reshaping the competitive landscape of the fast-food industry in the U.S. by suppressing appetite and challenging traditional dining establishments [1] - Investment firms are reassessing the long-term value of fast-food chains, with McDonald's being the first major company to receive a significant downgrade in ratings [1] Rating Agency Concerns and Predictions - Rothschild's Redburn Atlantic downgraded McDonald's stock from "Buy" to "Sell," marking a shift from their previously optimistic outlook since 2023 [3] - The firm estimates that McDonald's annual revenue could face a hit of up to $428 million due to increased usage of GLP-1 drugs among U.S. consumers, representing about 1% of McDonald's system sales [3] - The impact is expected to grow over time, potentially reaching 10% or more, particularly affecting low-income consumers and group dining scenarios [3] - Redburn Atlantic lowered McDonald's target price to $260 per share, nearly 15% below the previous closing price, making it the lowest expectation on Wall Street [3] - Morgan Stanley also downgraded McDonald's from "Overweight" to "Neutral," reducing the target price from $329 to $324, citing historical high valuation premiums compared to competitors [3] Industry Challenges - McDonald's reported a 3.6% decline in same-store sales in the U.S. for Q1, the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020 [4] - The overall foot traffic in fast-food restaurants has been declining, with 40 out of the last 43 months showing a decrease, indicating a fundamental shift in consumer behavior [4] - Fast-food companies are attempting to combat these challenges by increasing average transaction prices, but rising price differences between home-cooked and restaurant meals are leading more low-income consumers to dine at home [4] - McDonald's rapid menu price increases have damaged its value perception, negatively impacting customer traffic [4] - Redburn Atlantic also assigned a "Sell" rating to Domino's Pizza and a "Neutral" rating to Mexican Grill, while upgrading Yum! Brands, which owns KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, to "Buy" due to its reasonable valuation [4] - There is a noticeable divide in Wall Street's view on McDonald's, with 22 "Buy" ratings and 18 "Hold" ratings, and an average target price of $332 [4] - Analysts believe that if McDonald's does not improve in value perception and menu innovation, sustaining future growth may be challenging [4]