小摩CEO：美国经济数据恐将恶化 7-10月或迎冲击波

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns that the U.S. labor market and key economic indicators are likely to deteriorate soon, influenced by structural changes in trade patterns and geopolitics [1] - Dimon noted that the effects of tariff policies are beginning to manifest, predicting more significant impacts between July and October, but hopes for a relatively mild soft landing [1] - He emphasized the close relationship between consumer performance and the job market, warning that a resurgence of inflation or stagflation could trigger market panic [1] Group 2 - Dimon criticized current financial regulations as overly complex and ineffective in assessing real risks, specifically pointing out fundamental flaws in the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) [1] - He suggested that if he were in charge of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), he would work with other CEOs to reduce interest rate risk exposure and improve regulatory rules [1] - Dimon stated that some regulators lack a true understanding of the market environment, being overly reliant on economic theory without practical insight [1] Group 3 - JPMorgan Chase aims to maintain dividend payouts while prioritizing organic growth before considering external expansion [2] - Dimon reiterated the company's target of a 17% tangible common equity return rate, emphasizing the importance of achieving this through organic growth [2] - The company sees growth potential across various business segments, including commercial banking payments, consumer auto loans, mortgages, credit cards, and wealth management [2] Group 4 - Overall customer sentiment at JPMorgan Chase remains stable, with consumers having income and jobs, although savings accumulated during the pandemic are nearly depleted [2] - The business environment for corporations is also described as relatively stable [2] - Dimon commented on the status of the U.S. dollar, stating that if the U.S. were to lose its military and economic leadership, the dollar would cease to be a reserve currency, although no currency currently has the potential to replace it [2]