建银国际证券-2025年下半年全球市场展望：沉浮之间

Group 1 - The global economic environment in the second half of 2025 is characterized by complexity and fragility, with features of "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility" [8][10] - The US economy shows signs of weakening growth momentum, with negative policy effects becoming more pronounced. Key indicators such as consumer confidence and spending are approaching levels seen during the subprime mortgage crisis [11][24] - Inflationary pressures are re-emerging, with upstream cost increases expected to push the Consumer Price Index (CPI) back to around 3% by mid-year [11][32] Group 2 - In the US, the job market is weakening, with increased layoffs in mid-to-high-end positions and reduced support from the service sector and government employment [11][39] - The fiscal deficit risk is rising due to the expansionary policies of the Trump administration, which are expected to increase long-term bond yields [11][51] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in September and possibly 1 to 2 cuts throughout the year [11][45] Group 3 - In Europe, macroeconomic improvement is limited, with Germany's expanding fiscal deficit providing temporary confidence, but consumer investment and spending remain weak. The European Central Bank may have 1 to 2 rate cuts in the second half of the year [9] - Japan faces high inflation that suppresses economic recovery, with wage increases offset by rising living costs. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again before the end of the year [9] Group 4 - Asset allocation strategies suggest that US stocks may test previous highs but with significant volatility, particularly in July and August due to high inflation and trade negotiations [10] - US Treasury yields are expected to remain high, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [10] - Precious metals are viewed positively, with recommendations to buy on dips, maintaining a consistent strategy since 2024 [10]