Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous release of the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to disrupt the current calm in the U.S. bond market, potentially leading to significant volatility [1] Group 1: Auction Demand and Market Sentiment - Investor focus is on the demand for upcoming auctions, particularly due to concerns that trade policies may deter foreign buyers, who are typically significant holders of U.S. Treasuries [2] - The recent poor performance of the 20-year Treasury auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 and a yield of 5.047%, reflects growing investor anxiety [2] - Recent 10-year Treasury auctions have shown robust performance, with foreign investor participation above average, indicating that inflation concerns may outweigh trade worries [2] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Economists predict a 0.2% month-over-month increase in CPI and a 2.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year [3] - There are concerns that any unexpected rise in inflation could unsettle investors, posing risks to the labor market and economic growth [3] Group 3: Potential Risks from Auction Performance - A poor performance in the bond auction combined with higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a sharp increase in bond yields, representing a dual threat to the market [4] - The upcoming auction of long-term bonds is crucial for gauging investor interest in U.S. Treasuries amid rising debt and deficit concerns [5] - Experts warn that continued poor auction results could signal deeper issues in the market, with rising yields being a significant concern [5]
美国CPI+十年期美债拍卖,今晚的美债备受关注
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-11 01:23