铸造铝合金：产能过剩，AD2511预计区间18000 - 19700元/吨

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to promote the green and low-carbon development of China's aluminum industry, while the price trends are influenced by multiple factors [1] Industry Overview - Casting aluminum alloy futures and options are the first recycled metal futures products in China, aimed at enhancing the recycling market and standards for waste aluminum [1] - The futures contract's benchmark price is considered neutral to low, with medium to long-term prices expected to trend downward due to overcapacity and seasonal factors [1] Price Forecast - The reasonable price range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 and 19,700 yuan/ton, with industry clients advised to monitor selling hedging opportunities above 19,800 yuan/ton [1] Raw Material Supply - Waste aluminum is the primary raw material, with current supply tight and prices firm; the price difference between refined and waste aluminum has exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton, indicating supply constraints [1] - In 2024, new waste aluminum supply is expected to reach 3.5 million tons, accounting for 33% of domestic waste aluminum, while imports are projected at nearly 1.8 million tons, making up 14.6% [1] - High waste aluminum prices are squeezing profits for recycled aluminum manufacturers, with 42.2% of waste aluminum stored in building profiles and 22.2% in industrial profiles, indicating significant recovery potential [1] Capacity and Competition - By 2025, new casting aluminum alloy capacity is expected to increase by 1.25 million tons, with approximately 560,000 tons added in the first quarter [1] - The distribution of the recycled alloy industry is not highly concentrated, with many companies located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, leading to a fragmented competitive landscape [1] Demand Drivers - The core growth point for aluminum alloy demand is the electric vehicle sector, with the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicting a 24% growth in domestic electric vehicle production by 2025, which may drive demand for recycled aluminum alloys in automotive applications [1] - The traditional off-season for automobiles and non-ferrous metals occurs from June to August, leading to a decline in demand [1] - Aluminum alloys are also used in construction and decoration, with recycled aluminum currently accounting for about 20% of building aluminum, but this proportion is expected to increase with the rise of green building materials [1] Market Dynamics - Currently, ADC12 aluminum alloy is experiencing a high-cost, weak-demand situation, and the deepening off-season may create negative feedback in supply and demand [1] - The price of waste aluminum is expected to support the overall price of aluminum alloys, but the recycled aluminum alloy industry is anticipated to face overcapacity and weak price fluctuations [1] - The introduction of casting aluminum futures may lead to a backwardation structure, presenting opportunities for cross-period positive spreads [1]