Core Viewpoint - The company is a leader in waste incineration and is developing its water and biomass businesses, with a total waste-to-energy capacity of 150,400 tons/day by the end of 2024, ranking first in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.377 billion in 2024, with contributions from the environmental energy, green environmental, and water sectors being HKD 2.924 billion, -HKD 290 million, and HKD 743 million respectively, accounting for 87%, -9%, and 22% of the total profit [1] - Operating and financial income will account for 79% of total revenue by the end of 2024, with core operational indicators improving steadily, including a waste incineration power generation of 328 kWh per ton and a capacity utilization rate of 103% [2] - The company’s financial costs are expected to decrease, with financing costs dropping by 50 basis points to 3.2% and interest-bearing liabilities reduced to HKD 91.7 billion, leading to a savings of HKD 521 million in financial expenses [2] Group 2: Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (Capex) has significantly decreased from HKD 22.8 billion in 2021 to HKD 5.1 billion in 2024, as the industry matures [3] - The company’s free cash flow (FCF) has turned positive for the first time, reaching HKD 4.416 billion, with expectations for further improvement [3] - The annual national subsidies are approximately RMB 3.8 billion, with significant amounts expected to be received, which will enhance operational cash flow [3] Group 3: Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend yield is currently at 6%, with potential for increase, and the dividend payout ratio is expected to rise from 31% to 42% in 2024 [3] - The company plans to maintain a stable increase in dividends, with a projected dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 0.23 [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be HKD 3.589 billion, HKD 3.810 billion, and HKD 4.055 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [4] - Based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8x and considering the positive cash flow and dividend potential, the estimated market value of the company is HKD 28.71 billion, indicating a 23% upside [4]
光大环境(00257.HK)：垃圾焚烧龙头迎现金流拐点 分红提升可期