3年最高：韩国股市突破2900点！背后原因为何？接下来又会如何？

Group 1 - The Korean stock market has reached a three-year high, surpassing 2900 points, marking a technical bull market with over 20% gains since April [3][5] - The rise is attributed to political stability and coherent policies under the Lee Jae-myung government, which has implemented reforms to enhance corporate governance and shareholder returns [5][7] - The government plans a 35 trillion KRW (approximately 27 billion USD) economic stimulus focused on strategic industries like AI and biotechnology, boosting market confidence [5][8] Group 2 - Structural reforms in the Korean capital market aim to address the "Korea Discount" by enforcing mandatory stock cancellations, tax incentives for high-dividend companies, and strengthening fiduciary duties of directors [7][8] - Goldman Sachs estimates that if these reforms are implemented, the KOSPI's target price-to-earnings ratio could improve from 9.3 times to 12 times [8] - Global capital is reallocating from "US stock bubbles" to "Asian valuation gaps," with a significant increase in emerging market capital inflows following the Fed's interest rate cuts [8] Group 3 - Future performance of the Korean stock market will depend on the effectiveness and speed of Lee Jae-myung's policies, particularly regarding fiscal expansion and corporate governance reforms [10][11] - The actual recovery strength of the semiconductor industry is crucial, as current gains are largely based on expectations; any shortfall in demand could negatively impact the index [11] - Geopolitical factors and trade tensions, particularly with the US, could offset policy benefits, making the resilience of Korean exports a key concern [12][14]